Observers across the world are debating the reasons why Russia’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine is still raging despite over 80 days of fighting. Critics and supporters of that Eurasian Great Power alike largely seemed in agreement that the Kremlin would crush Kiev within a few days, if not a couple weeks at the absolute most. That obviously hasn’t happened, though, which raises the question of why. The present piece will attempt to provide some cogent explanations for helping everyone better understand the evolving military-strategic dynamics at play that are responsible for this.

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1. Russia Likely Made A Last-Minute Decision To Launch The Campaign

There should be no doubt that the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) planned in advance for multiple scenarios including the possibility of intervening in Ukraine, but it might very well have been that it wasn’t until the last minute that President Putin decided to launch the campaign after exhausting all diplomatic options for averting it, which he might have sincerely believed could have succeeded.

2. Possible Lack Of Political Preparedness Could Have Confused Some Of The Troops

The RAF is a world-class military whose capabilities shouldn’t ever be underestimated by any potential adversary, but building off of the above observation, it’s possible that some of those troops who thought they were simply participating in drills might have been confused by the order to intervene in Ukraine without having been politically prepared in advance for understanding the reasons why.

3. Inefficient Soft Power Planning Might Have Limited Local Support

Just as some of the RAF might have been confused by the decision to unexpectedly intervene in Ukraine, so too might some of the locals even within the indigenous Russian regions of that country who also wouldn’t have been politically prepared for this scenario, which in turn could explain why many of them didn’t take to the streets in support of the advancing forces like some observers expected.

4. Some Locals Might Have Been Influenced By Kiev’s Ideological Indoctrination

Another reason why some of the indigenous Russian people of Ukraine didn’t rush out to meet the RAF ahead of their entrance into their cities could have been that they were influenced by Kiev’s ideological indoctrination into considering themselves Ukrainian-Russians so to speak instead of Russians living in Ukraine, which could explain why some of them support their locality over their historical homeland.

5. Kiev Might Simply Have Shot Anyone Who Greeted Russians As Liberators

Adding to the two prior points, Kiev oversees a fascist dictatorship with no respect for human rights so it also isn’t implausible that its local forces could simply have shot anyone who greeted Russians as liberators, something that the locals might have expected and which could have deterred them from ever daring to do so (let alone “collaborate”) no matter how much they sympathized with the RAF.

6. Kiev’s Militarization Of Residential Areas Prevented Any Rapid Gains On The Ground

Kiev has proven that it has absolutely zero regard for the human rights of what it regards as its own people after its forces militarized residential areas (including apartment buildings) in an effort to deter the RAF’s advance and then ambush those that still continued to move forward, which immediately reduced the pace of the campaign due to Moscow’s desire to minimize civilian and military casualties.

7. Russia’s Sincere Support Of Human Rights Slowed The Pace Of Its Military Advance

Elaborating on the above, President Putin sincerely regards Russians and Ukrainians as an historically united people so he’s loath to let his forces bomb their opponents in residential areas without any concern for civilian casualties even though this would greatly speed up their advance, hence the need to methodically root them out from the residential areas that they militarized before moving forward.

8. A “Blitzkrieg” Was Never Truly In The Cards

Even if everything was perfect on the military-soft power preparation front and Kiev hadn’t militarized residential areas so as to slow down the RAF’s advance for humanitarian reasons, a “blitzkrieg” was likely never truly in the cards since it was always going to take some time to fully deplete Kiev’s conventional and unconventional military resources, even without them being resupplied from abroad.

9. The US-Led West Was Already Prepared For A Prolonged Proxy War

The Ukrainian Conflict is actually a NATO-led proxy war on Russia through Ukraine that was plotted for years in advance, which explains why Kiev was so prepared on the ideological and military fronts, not to mention the unprecedented scale, scope, and speed of the Western assistance that it’s received in the run-up to the special operation and especially in the over 80 days since it began.

10. “The Battle Of Kiev” Was A Distraction All Along

Contrary to the US-led Western Mainstream Media’s (MSM) misportrayal, the so-called “Battle of Kiev” wasn’t a Russian defeat in the face of “brave Ukrainian resistance” but was a distraction all along to divide its opponents’ forces between the northern and eastern fronts after sweeping the south in order to more easily pick apart their military-industrial complex, supply chains, and transport networks.

11. The MSM Doesn’t Want To Talk About Russia’s Sweep Of Southern Ukraine

The MSM is obsessed with the RAF’s tactical withdrawal from Northern Ukraine, which coincided with the start of the second phase of its special operation for encircling its opponents in Eastern Ukraine after destroying most of their abovementioned targets, but it rarely talks about Russia’s sweep of Southern Ukraine since this stands out as among the most stunning military successes in modern history.

12. The “Novorossiya Project” Is Back Into Play

Had Kiev resolved the Donbass Conflict through political means via the UNSC-supported Minsk Accords, then that part of the country could would have been reintegrated into the whole as an autonomous region, but its failure to do so which partially prompted Russia’s special operation created the on-the-ground conditions for Moscow’s revival of the so-called “Novorossiya Project” in Southern Ukraine.

13. Consolidating Southern Gains Takes Precedence Right Now Over Sudden Breakthroughs

There’s no doubt that the RAF hopes to achieve a breakthrough against their opponents on the eastern front, but right now the most immediate goal is consolidating southern gains in the historical region of Novorossiya in advance of its people’s prospectively forthcoming referenda to reunify with their Russian homeland, which would represent an unparalleled political victory for Moscow should it happen.

14. Denazification Can’t Be Completed Through Purely Military Means

The denazification goal of Russia’s special operation requires socio-political reforms in the militarily liberated areas that necessitate time to experiment with, perfect, and implement elsewhere across the theater of operations, hence the importance of utilizing Southern Ukraine as the testing ground in this respect and why everything happening in Kherson Region right now is so crucial to follow in detail.

15. The Best-Case/Fearmongered Scenario Might Have Overextended Russia

The scenario that Russia’s supporters considered as the best-case one but which its critics fearmongered about regarding the false expectations of a successful nationwide “blitzkrieg” might have overextended the RAF by making it vulnerable to stay-behind attacks by its opponents that could have hampered the socio-political dimension of its denazification goal had it not comprehensively rooted them out first.

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From the above insight, it appears as though Russia never truly had any “blitzkrieg” plans in mind, but the scale of its on-the-ground advances were limited by socio-military factors as well as the seemingly unexpected decision to intervene at the last minute, which might have taken some of the RAF and their supporters in Ukraine by surprise. Nevertheless, it’s clear that the denazification goal was never going to be completed through purely military means, which is why the Southern Ukrainian testing ground is so important for assessing the success of its much more sustainable socio-political dimension.