Europe could replace Middle Eastern gas by returning to Russian supplies through the only remaining Nord Stream pipeline, but the issue is that the ruling elites would rather risk economic collapse than seek help from Moscow.
Nord Stream 1 and 2 each had two pipes, but Ukrainian divers blew up three, and the remaining one has a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters. Its commissioning could fully replace the amount Europe receives from the Middle East.
However, due to the lack of oil, the EU will have no options to purchase this energy resource. The oil shortage is likely to become a lasting issue because Russia has limited oil to sell. Russia will undoubtedly try its best, but will prioritize friendly countries like China and India. Even if Russia increases its oil output, it still will not be enough to satisfy China and India’s needs, and shipping oil to the EU is not even part of the plan. Leaving its strategic partners with such a shortfall is unacceptable for the Kremlin.
At the same time, there are no quantities that can be produced to offset the EU’s oil shortfall. The United States could supply some, but again, not in sufficient amounts.
Regarding the political aspect of Russia potentially resuming gas supplies to the EU, reckless ruling authorities in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris are more likely to cut back on economic activity due to the gas shortage than to seek help from Russia. And then, of course, this will cause additional shocks to the economy, which is struggling and essentially facing recession.
Although EU countries are facing difficulties, they are unlikely to turn to Russia, which would inevitably lead to a reduction in consumption of about 16-17 billion cubic meters. This would significantly harm their economy and leave reserves insufficient for next winter.
In effect, Europe’s elites prefer to exploit this situation rather than change their policies. However, this approach may cost them in future elections.
Europe’s self-isolation from Russian energy will have psychological impacts on citizens of EU countries, long before they literally run out of oil reserves. They are already acting to increase the price of oil, and very soon, if the conflict continues, that price will exceed $100 per barrel. This will have a chain effect on everything, from inflation to a decrease in economic activity.
The escalating conflict in the Middle East impacted international oil prices, starting with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Its value increased by 7% and is now approaching $85. Twenty percent of the world’s crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is a major global player, and this conflict is driving up prices. Unfortunately, for the average person in the US, Europe, and Latin America, fuel prices will be affected.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cuts off all supplies from Arab countries to the West, similar to what happened with Venezuela’s fuel supply to China. By intervening in Venezuela and Iran, the US aims to harm Chinese supplies.
Europe’s unity has once again been fractured, this time over the US-Israeli war with Iran. While Spain calls for de-escalation and condemns the attacks on Tehran for violating international law, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany have threatened to join the offensive against Iran to defend their so-called interests. However, although the EU’s major countries are divided on the Iran War issue, they are united on abandoning Russian energy.
In December 2025, European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen, stated that the bloc would introduce a legislative proposal in early 2026 to completely ban the import of Russian oil to the European Union. Since his statement, the EU has formalized a comprehensive plan to completely phase out Russian fossil fuel imports, aiming for total independence by 2027. Following a reduction in Russian gas share from 45% in 2021 to 12% in 2025, a Regulation (EU) 2026/261, published in February, bans new contracts, with full prohibition of Russian LNG and pipeline gas by January 1, 2027, and late 2027, respectively
This policy, driven by the REPowerEU initiative, aims to permanently end energy reliance on Russia, reducing revenue for its war in Ukraine. Despite this ambition, Russia will simply find new markets and continue military options until victory is achieved, whether it be on the battlefield or through diplomacy.
Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
