Needless to say, few are expecting bubble symmetry to manifest now, because, well, of course, “this time it’s different.” Indeed. It’s always different and yet always the same, too.
Let’s indulge in some basic logic:
1. All speculative bubbles pop, regardless of source, time or place. (100% of all historical evidence supports this.)
2. The current “Everything Bubble” is a speculative bubble.
3. Therefore the current speculative bubble will pop.
Now that we got that out of the way, the question becomes: how will the crash play out?There is no way to forecast precisely when or how the current speculative bubble will crash, but history offers a few potential templates.
The dot-com bubble offers a classic example of bubble symmetry and scale invariance. (See chart below.) Note how the bubble arose in two legs of X duration and it crashed in two symmetrical legs of X duration. In both legs, the crash returned to the same levels from which the bubble took off.
Scale invariance: this same symmetry is visible in bubbles that soar and crash in 6 days, 6 months or 6 years. The symmetry also holds whether the instrument soars from $1 to $5 or $100 to $500, or whether it is in index, commodity or equity. (See charts of Cisco Systems (CSCO) in 2000 and Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 below.)
If bubble symmetry holds this time around, the explosive rallies visible in the charts of the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Global Nasdaq (NOGM) will crash back to their lift-off levels in an equally explosive collapse of similar duration to the explosive rise.
Needless to say, few are expecting bubble symmetry to manifest now, because, well, of course, this time it’s different. Indeed. It’s always different and yet always the same, too.
If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
My new book is available!A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20% and 15% discounts (Kindle $7, print $17, audiobook now available $17.46)
Read excerpts of the book for free (PDF).
The Story Behind the Book and the Introduction.
Recent Podcasts:
Local and Decentralised Economies: The Start Of A New Environmentalism (54 min)
AxisOfEasy Salon #37: The Tension Between Nation State Conformity and Network State Cacophony (51 minutes)
My recent books:
A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), (audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake$1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print)Read the first section for free (PDF).
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Thank you, Matthew W. ($100/month), for your beyond-outrageously generous pledge to this site — I am greatly honored by your support and readership. |
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Needless to say, few are expecting bubble symmetry to manifest now, because, well, of course, “this time it’s different.” Indeed. It’s always different and yet always the same, too. Let’s indulge in some basic logic:1. All speculative bubbles pop, regardless of source, time or place. (100% of all historical evidence supports this.) 2. The current “Everything Bubble” is a speculative bubble. 3. Therefore the current speculative bubble will pop. Now that we got that out of the way, the question becomes: how will the crash play out?There is no way to forecast precisely when or how the current speculative bubble will crash, but history offers a few potential templates. The dot-com bubble offers a classic example of bubble symmetry and scale invariance. (See chart below.) Note how the bubble arose in two legs of X duration and it crashed in two symmetrical legs of X duration. In both legs, the crash returned to the same levels from which the bubble took off. Scale invariance: this same symmetry is visible in bubbles that soar and crash in 6 days, 6 months or 6 years. The symmetry also holds whether the instrument soars from $1 to $5 or $100 to $500, or whether it is in index, commodity or equity. (See charts of Cisco Systems (CSCO) in 2000 and Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 below.) If bubble symmetry holds this time around, the explosive rallies visible in the charts of the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Global Nasdaq (NOGM) will crash back to their lift-off levels in an equally explosive collapse of similar duration to the explosive rise. Needless to say, few are expecting bubble symmetry to manifest now, because, well, of course, this time it’s different. Indeed. It’s always different and yet always the same, too. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.My new book is available!A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20% and 15% discounts (Kindle $7, print $17, audiobook now available $17.46)Read excerpts of the book for free (PDF).The Story Behind the Book and the Introduction. Recent Podcasts:Local and Decentralised Economies: The Start Of A New Environmentalism (54 min) AxisOfEasy Salon #37: The Tension Between Nation State Conformity and Network State Cacophony (51 minutes) My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts My recent books:A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), (audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake$1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print)Read the first section for free (PDF). Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Matthew W. ($100/month), for your beyond-outrageously generous pledge to this site — I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Jeffrey B. ($5/month), for your marvelously generous pledge to this site — I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
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