Violence in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal) has increased in recent years, and several countries in the region have fallen victim to military coups. Now, there is a possibility that US forces may not be welcome in Niger, all at a time when Russophilia is growing in the country.
The military coup in Niger “completed a domino chain” in a group of African countries, stretching from Guinea in the extreme west of the continent to Sudan in the extreme east, which are ruled by coup plotters, reported The New York Times on July 29. The newspaper considers the ousted Nigerian President Mohamed Bazoum, a democratically elected US ally, and the coup’s aftermath a threat to the US fight against Islamist groups in Africa.
“For the United States and its allies, the coup raised urgent questions about the fight against Islamist militants in the Sahel, the vast semiarid region where groups linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State are gaining ground at an alarming pace, moving from the desert toward the sea. Much of the Sahel overlaps with Africa’s newly formed, coast-to-coast coup belt,” the outlet said.
As the NYT noted, footage from the coup in Niamey, Niger’s capital, where protesters waved Russian flags, depicts scenes like those during the coup in neighbouring Burkina Faso. However, the coups in Guinea and Mali had different reasons for occurring.
The article stresses that the presence of the Russian flags does not mean that the Kremlin is behind the rebels’ actions but symbolises “how Russia has positioned itself as the torch bearer of anti-Western, and especially anti-French, sentiment in a swath of Africa in recent years.”
Niger, with at least 1,100 military personnel and two drone bases that cost $110 million, was considered a “cornerstone of the Pentagon’s regional strategy.” The NYT reckons that if the junta comes to power, the Americans could be asked to leave the country, which would “open a door to Russia.”
The African Union, the Economic Community of West African States, and the European Union condemned the coup and urged Bazoum’s return to power. For his part, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned, along with the EU, that the economic support to the country will cease if the coup d’état is not reversed.
Moscow also criticised the coup and urged the parties not to use force. Nonetheless, anti-French slogans and Russian flags on the streets of Niger after the military coup show that the social community in the Sahel region is looking for an alternative to the West.
According to the Institute for Economics and Peace, the Sahel has been the epicentre of jihadist violence in recent years, surpassing the Middle East and South Asia, accounting for 43% of such deaths in 2022, compared to 1% in 2007. One of the reasons for the coup was Bazoum’s domestic policy, which could not cope with the economic and security crises in the context of jihadist groups running rampant in the region, including on the country’s border.
Anti-French slogans and Russian flags on the streets of Niamey and other cities are linked to the claims of the old anti-colonial direction of Paris. The people of the Sahel region harbour strong resentment towards France, the old imperial master that has not brought them any economic, security or stability benefits.
The most popular foreign policy actions in the Sahel region in the past year were cooperation with Russia and not the EU or the US. Closer relations with Russia imply the desire to find an alternative to the West to escape the accumulated economic and political crises. This has created a trend towards Russia, which has never colonised Africa.
Even if the French army leaves Niger, France’s economic interests in exporting uranium will remain a priority. For this reason, Paris announced it was suspending development aid and budgetary support to Niger and called for “an immediate return to constitutional order” and Bazoum’s reinstatement.
The EU’s diplomatic chief Josep Borrell said the bloc would not recognise the coup and suspended security cooperation and budgetary aid to Niger.
“[Bazoum] remains the only legitimate president of Niger,” the EU statement said, with Borrell adding that the EU was ready to support future decisions taken by West Africa’s regional bloc, “including the adoption of sanctions.”
It appears that the EU will adopt the sanctions on Niger since West African nations on July 30 imposed them and even threatened to use force if coup leaders did not reinstate the ousted president within a week. These sanctions and threats came while junta supporters attacked the French embassy in Niamey.
Although Washington is yet to impose sanctions on Niger, it can be expected since, as the New York Times highlighted, a domino chain has been completed in the Sahel region following the ousting of Bazoum. This not only weakens Western designs in Africa but also allows a space for Russia to expand its influence.
Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.