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I have repeatedly argued that launching an attack against Iran would result in a catastrophic defeat for the US military. I believe this for many reasons, foremost among them my long-held conviction that the aircraft carrier is an obsolete relic of a bygone era that will not survive a war against a peer or near-peer adversary…. it just so happens that the largest and most expensive war-game exercise in Pentagon history tested the thesis back in 2002. It was a massive battle simulation code-named Millennium Challenge. The Pentagon spent a whopping 250 million dollars setting the whole thing up, and it consisted primarily of a carrier strike group escorting a large amphibious landing force into the Persian Gulf….

the naval task force had transited the Strait of Hormuz, and then he launched salvos of land-based ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles launched from low-flying planes and helicopters, and swarms of elusive “fast boats” against the flotilla of ships. This attack entirely overwhelmed the defense capabilities of the fleet, and in a matter of mere minutes, all nineteen ships in the task force had been sunk, along with their entire complement of 20,000 sailors and marines.

It was a total catastrophe – not to mention a shocking humiliation for Pentagon planners… The problem is that, while the US military is substantially weakened since its high-water mark of dominance in 2002, the Iranians are significantly more formidable in every category….

I’d like to think the desk jockeys at the Pentagon “learned their lesson”, but I’m confident they did not. And if the US attempts to make war against Iran at this late stage of the empire’s denouement, I expect the real-life results to be at least as disastrous as they were in simulation over twenty years ago.
Will Schryver @imetatronink

Donald Trump’s advisors are withholding critical information that could dramatically impact his decision to launch preemptive air-strikes on Iran. Trump’s assumption –that the United States can inflict devastating damage on Iran without suffering significant losses itself– speaks to Trump’s ignorance about the breathtaking improvements in Iran’s state-of-the-art air-defense systems and hypersonic missiles. As we noted in earlier articles, Iran’s extraordinary missile and air-defense capability were put on full display during the tit-for-tat dust-up between Israel and Iran last year. But the results of those conflagrations have been shaped into a narrative that bears no relation to the truth. The Israeli-friendly media would have you believe that Israel overwhelmingly prevailed both offensively and defensively when, in fact, they fell short on both counts. What we learned from the altercation is that Israel’s air campaign was sharply rebuffed by Iran’s advanced multi-layered air defense systems while the vast majority of Iran’s long-range hypersonic ballistic missiles cut-through Israeli vaunted air defense systems striking targets unopposed. This basic outcome has been confirmed by a number of reputable analysts and even appeared in an article in the mainstream Guardian which said:

Satellite and social media footage has shown (Iranian) missile after missile striking the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, and setting off at least some secondary explosions, indicating that despite the highly touted effectiveness of Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defences, Iran’s strikes were more effective than had been previously admitted.

Experts who analyzed the footage noted at least 32 direct hits on the airbase. None appeared to have caused major damage, but some landed close to hangars that house Israel’s F-35 jets, among the country’s most prized military assets…. Guardian

In short, Iran has the ability to put their missiles on any target in any location in Israel and Israel has no way to stop them. Here’s how military analyst Brandon Weichert summed it up in an interview on Absolute Truth:

Yes. Iran’s threat has evolved and the fact that everyone in the West in official positions seems to be reading off the same script should tell you that Iran, as I warned years ago, has evolved key capabilities to threaten Israel as never before. Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon (short video)

So, Iran not only has the offensive tools to inflict significant damage on US/Israeli bases and critical infrastructure in the region; it also has one of the most advanced, cutting-edge air-defenses in the world.

Does Trump know this?

No, he does not. Trump is a victim of Israeli misinformation as are his advisors. And that misinformation is affecting his ability to objectively weigh the risks against the benefits of any prospective conflict . He thinks that Iran will be quickly overpowered and forced to capitulate. But that’s a conclusion he’s drawn based the analysis of last year’s fracas between Israel and Iran. All of our research suggests that the media’s version of events is thoroughly unreliable and deeply flawed. Even so, that is the analysis on which Trump has based his decision to go to war.

Iran displayed its capability to knock-out Israeli air bases in time of conflict….

Important:
People must bear in mind, that no soft defeat measure helped to prevent the strike:
– No GPS/GLONASS spoofing and jamming helped, whether by or
– No sabotage asset
– No secret space-based counter system…
In a real war scenario, Iran would use its high-precision missiles against the hardened and small targets… Patarames @Pataramesh

Given Iran’s impressive military capability, we think Tehran will retaliate, and the scale of their retaliation will be proportional to the magnitude of the perceived threat. If Iranian leaders think they face an existential threat (and the possible annihilation of the regime), then they are going to respond as if “their lives depended on it”, because their lives do depend on it. Which means they’re going to pull out all the stops and use whatever weapons they have to ensure their own self-preservation. They are not going to capitulate or wave the white flag. They’re going to go ‘scorched earth’ and fight to the death.

Trump doesn’t know any of this, because Trump is setting policy based on information he’s gleaned from an agenda-driven media operating on Israel’s behalf. He seems to think the war will be a “cakewalk” that will shower him with the praise and glory he deserves. He doesn’t realize that he is on-course to pop the biggest myth of all, the myth of US military superiority.