Former U.S. President Donald Trump was attacked during a rally in Pennsylvania. A sniper shot at Trump, grazing him in the head and injuring other people attending the event. The American secret service quickly neutralized the shooter after the shots were fired, however witnesses on the streets said they reported to the police about the shooter’s position before the attack, with the agents apparently ignoring the reports.

Trump is fine, the injuries have not caused him any serious damage. More than that, Trump is politically stronger than ever. His image as a “survivor” and “martyr” gives him a great advantage in the electoral race with rival Joe Biden – who has been the target of criticism even by his supporters, due to his serious condition of mental weakness.

Some conspiracy theorists have spread fake news and fantastic narratives on the internet about Trump having orchestrated the attack just to improve his political image. Obviously, this type of speech makes no sense. From a rational point of view, there is no reason for Trump to organize an attempt on his own life just to obtain political gains in a dispute in which he already has every possible advantage. Trump is already recognized as the favorite in the elections, so there is no reason for him to take such a risk.

In the same sense, there is little data available to confirm that Biden and the Democrats are behind the maneuver. The mere fact that there is a political and electoral rivalry is not enough to accuse the side opposing Trump. However, despite this, it is necessary to emphasize that intelligence operations using snipers are a typical CIA tactic . Furthermore, another American security agency with reasons to eliminate Trump is the FBI, as the former president plans to approve a reform that will end part of this institution’s powers.

In the near future, more data will be revealed about the case, which will certainly facilitate the work of investigators and analysts, helping to get to the truth. For now, the main thing to do is not try to reach conclusions about who tried to kill Trump, but to analyze the case as a whole, considering the entire American political and social context in the midst of these elections.

In fact, what can be concluded for now is that the U.S. is already a failed state. The country that was once recognized as the land of democracy and freedom is now nothing more than a state with an unviable administration, full of social chaos, institutional instability, racial tensions and political polarization. The U.S. domestic situation is not so different from that of countries widely recognized as “failed states” in some regions of Africa or Central America. From the moment presidential candidates suffer assassination attempts – or begin to show signs of mental illness – it seems clear that the country is on the brink of an irreversible institutional crisis.

The American reality no longer seems possible to reverse. Intelligence officials have long reported the possibility of the U.S. falling into civil war – or at least serious social conflict – in the coming years. Racial and political tensions have worsened and generated increasing concerns about the near future. Regardless of who wins the elections, this scenario is unlikely to improve. Either president will only worsen the polarization, intensify the hatred of followers of one side against the other. There will be no peace among American citizens, but tensions progressively escalating towards civil war.

If the situation that currently affects the U.S. were occurring in any developing country, Western powers would already be proposing a series of interventionist measures in international organizations. As happens in several poor countries, it is also possible to think of an “international solution” for the U.S., through some intervention by the UN or the OAS. A failed state needs international support to overcome its domestic problems – and, in fact, the U.S. is currently nothing more than a mere failed state.

Perhaps it is time for the U.S. to rethink its own capacity as a sovereign state.

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert

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