Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: Making The Call? – John Wilder

John Wilder from Wilder, Wealthy, and Wise. “The Babylon Project was our last, best hope for peace. It failed. But in the year of the Shadow War, it became something greater: our last, best hope for victory. The year is 2260. The place: Babylon 5.” – Babylon 5

Midnight?

Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
Open War.

I’ve bolded both 9. and 10. That’s the lead story (below).

As close as we are to the precipice of war, be careful. Things could change at any minute. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.

In this issue: Front Matter – Making The Call? – Violence And Censorship Update –– Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Calling It Quits – Links

Front Matter

Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join over 570 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.

Note: Except for the first, all images in this post are “as found.”

Making The Call?

If you’ve read these for some time, I’ve been using the internationally accepted standard for declaring a civil war. It’s one that academics used to make a description. In that sense, it’s arbitrary, but it sets some standard. Most importantly, it isn’t a standard I made up. It exists outside of this report, and you can go and check it for yourself. I want (as much as possible) to be factual when I say something about the emerging Civil War 2.0 as it is certainly the most consequential event that will occur during my lifetime. So, as a starter, I adopted the international standard.

I believe that we have met that standard.

From that academic standpoint, the United States would be classified as a nation in a Civil War. I’ll provide the reasoning: since the George Floyd riots started, there has been epidemic violence in the nation. I had been tracking that increase, using several sources of hot-spot political violence and tabulating them. Data, as you could imagine, isn’t tabulated that way, so my methods were an estimate.

I tried to be conservative with it. This isn’t a Civil War where Johnny Reb fights with Billy Yank on a battlefield under banners. Nope. It’s a more brutal version where it’s fought on the streets in one-on-one encounters, complete a corrupt District Attorney system that lets half of the players back on the street with no punishment.

One (very fair) criticism from Ricky (who graciously provides the Links) is that this is an extraordinary claim, so it should require extraordinary proof. He suggested a (curated, my add) spreadsheet showing each victim by name, and linking to the details? We could all easily agree about Ashli Babbitt and those killed in Kenosha, as well as dozens of others (mainly) killed by Antifa®.

That’s a very worthy idea, but not one I would be the best candidate to maintain. Perhaps someone will pick up that idea.

What I do have are raw statistics that back up my attempt to quantify the current body count. Here’s a graph, from Steve Sailer’s work (LINK).

The increase in murder deaths from 2019 to 2020 was nearly 5,000. Extrapolate that into the first three-quarters of 2021? You get over 8,000. If only 1/8 of those deaths are politically related, we’re there at the international standard. Again, I don’t have a list of 1,000 names. For perspective, even those 1,000 are just a small fraction of the people that have died from either COVID or the “jab”, yet they are categorically different: we are killing each other over politics.

A second set of great thoughts came from Eaton Rapids Joe (LINK). He brought up two ideas: the first is normalization. The United States has a population of over three hundred million. Most countries that have had civil wars are much, much smaller. Rwanda had a population of only about 7,000,000 when they decided to kill off about 1,700,000 of each other. To cross the 1,000 threshold (proportionally to population size) would require 43,000 dead.

That’s a good point. He further went on to note that some cities of the United States have already crossed a proportionate threshold. In a heat map, you’d see that most places are quite cold, but lots of Blue cities were clearly far beyond any reasonable threshold and are clearly in civil war already.

These are good points.

Because of that perspective, I can not say that we are fully at Open War, rather I can say that every element is in place. I can say with reasonable certainty that we have crossed an important psychological threshold. Whether we come back from the brink?

That’s one that time will tell. As of this writing, I am only seeing signs of additional deterioration in the political landscape. It’s getting worse daily.

Violence And Censorship Update

I think violence is pretty well covered up above. Censorship, sadly, hasn’t ramped down, but rather increased.

Let’s start with YouTube®, which is the modern equivalent of the Ministry of Truth. Who did they muzzle this month?

Probably the most important is a change in policy. Now, any video that claims that “vaccines are ineffective or dangerous” will be banned. Different opinions aren’t tolerated. As much as I don’t agree that lies are good public policy, keep in mind that science doesn’t work that way. Science works when free and open debate and inquiry are allowed to find the truth. As we learn more, we discover that we didn’t understand the world quite as well as we thought. Well, not on YouTube®. Only thoughts approved by Ministry of Truth are allowed in 1984 2021.

This has a very significant impact on other YouTube channels. Because they don’t know exactly where “the line” is they avoid the subject entirely. As more people ditch mainstream media, it looks like alternatives have to be co-opted. A case in point:

MiniTru, er, YouTube© also banned one of Ron Paul’s channels. Why? They won’t tell him.

But don’t worry! The Fed.Gov folks are hard at work. They’re monitoring your social media and ProtonMail® accounts.

Thankfully, they can still make sure our children are being properly educated:

And that we are not using bullying language:

And while murders are up by 30%, ClubFed® is hanging out at Right rallies in Washington, D.C. so that you and I can feel safe. Big Benneton® is watching you.

Updated Civil War II Index

The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.

Violence:

Up is more violent, and our perception of violence is down in September, again.

Political Instability:

Up is more unstable, and it ticked up this month, mainly on inflation fears.

Economic:

Economic measures held steady, but I expect a huge drop in October if trends continue. And, the Fed® decided to not show the bad news on something I’ve long predicted . . .

Illegal Aliens:

This data was at record levels last month, and only dropped slightly this month. Perspective: this rate is 4x the rate from any previous year in the last four.

Calling It Quits

Calls for divorce in the United States increased in September. Don’t believe me?

This call is showing up in pretty much every aspect of life. We have gone from a single nation that fought about the center to one where people on the Right feel that people on the Left are a danger. Not someone they disagree with: a danger.

If you disagree with someone, we can talk it out. If I consider them a danger? That means the time for talking is over. And if both of these polls are correct, America is pretty well done talking. Well, at least constructive talking:

And that’s just NASCAR®. What about Texas?

What’s the biggest cause of divorces? Cheating. Has there been any of that?

Of course the Left has fought tooth and nail against looking at the most statistically improbable election in American history. Why? They cheated. So, given that, pretty much everyone is done. The Left, and the Right.

LINK

As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky.

Hold Up

Providence, RI: https://twitter.com/i/status/1441931138432385024

Olympic WA: https://twitter.com/i/status/1436355179675152391

Washington DC: https://twitter.com/i/status/1434291759169871874

Philadelphia, PA: https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1434579991853948932

Portland, OR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYwRztl0mVs

Chicago, IL: https://twitter.com/CPD1617Scanner/status/1442575822565556226

Keiser, OR: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9965833/Shoplifters-steal-thousands-dollars-worth-electrical-wires-Lowes-Oregon.html

New York, NY: https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/09/20/tiktok-devious-licks-viral-challenge-vandalism-stealing-in-schools/

Break Up