Recent developments on the African continent show that the tide is turning away from francophone West Africa, which has seen 9 military coups in the last 7 years, and towards the Horn of Africa. Signs of impending instability are most visible in Ethiopia.
This is particularly evident in the recent unrest in Kenya, where people took to the streets in large numbers to protest against a new tax bill introduced by President William Ruto’s government.
The protests, which began in the capital Nairobi on 18 June, quickly spread to other parts of the country. When the Kenyan parliament passed the new law on 25 June, just minutes later crowds of angry protesters stormed the building, setting part of it on fire and demanding the resignation of the government and the president, who quickly withdrew the law and declared a state of emergency.
The unrest in the country became so acute that US Ambassador Meg Whitman hastily left Kenya, followed by thousands of tourists. The police and military used not only tear gas and rubber bullets, but also live ammunition to disperse the demonstrations, leaving at least 23 people dead and around 200 injured.
And it happened in a country that is seen as a “beacon of stability” in a very turbulent region, and that was recently described by the Biden administration as a “key non-NATO ally of the United States”.
Signs of impending instability in Ethiopia have begun to emerge. On 4 July this year, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told parliament that Ethiopia was facing the threat of a coup.
He said there had been increasing talk of a military coup in the country recently among tribal elders and other personalities. The Prime Minister said, “I want to warn them that this will end in failure and that they are wasting the money they are getting from their friends who are funding them”. However, Abiy Ahmed refrained from naming specific individuals to whom he was giving advice and who he was referring to from their outside friends.
US forms coalition that could lead to coup
According to the Ethiopian publication The Reporter, Addis Ababa’s fears of a possible coup arose after the press reported that US officials had met with Ethiopian opposition party leaders inside the country, as well as influential members of the large Ethiopian diaspora living in the United States.
In particular, on 26 June this year, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia Erwin Massinga met in Washington with former Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew, an Amhara national who criticised the central government’s military operation against FANO rebels in August 2023 during a parliamentary session and soon fled to the United States, and former leader of the opposition nationalist Semayawi Party, Yilkal Getnet.
In addition, U.S. Special Representative for the Horn of Africa Mike Hammer, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee and other officials held talks with former Ethiopian politicians abroad and members of the diaspora of various ethnicities, mainly Oromo, Amhara and Tigray.
According to the Ethiopian publication Borkena, former Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) rebel commander Tsadkan Gebretensae, who became Ethiopia’s chief of defence staff after the TPLF took power in 1991, is among those now living in the United States and is well placed to rally former colleagues to his side.
He was one of the main TPLF representatives at the November 2022 talks in Pretoria with Abiy Ahmed’s government on the cessation of hostilities in the Tigray region in 2020-2022. The Reporter notes that Abiy Ahmed’s appeal was primarily to this military figure, with whom he had worked closely when he was Ethiopia’s Chief of Defence Staff, who then defected to the rebels.
According to The Reporter, there is a perception in Ethiopian government circles that the US is doing this in order to form a coalition of former political elites who were ousted from power during Abiy Ahmed’s rule and who could lead a coup.
These suspicions were further fuelled by a statement by US Ambassador Erwin Massing in May this year, in which he urged the Oromo Liberation Army to “not give up” on its goals and to continue negotiating with the central government in Addis Ababa, despite the fact that the organisation, which has been fighting for an independent Oromo state since 1973, is recognised by the authorities as a terrorist organisation, as is FANO.
Although the two organisations do not cooperate domestically and are even at war with each other in some areas, their representatives abroad are reported to be discussing the possibility of cooperation. In any case, Abiy Ahmed believes that if either of them succeeds in staging a coup, Ethiopia will disintegrate, as he said in parliament, and descend into deep chaos, as is the case in Sudan today.
The latest evidence of the escalation of the situation and the intensification of the activities of the opposition and external forces is the fact that some senior Ethiopian military officers have joined the opposition camp. According to local press reports, General Tefera Mamo, commander of the Amhara Special Forces, defected to FANO in early July this year. He was joined a few days later by General Tezera Negussie of the same force.
Although the central government had previously mobilised a sufficiently large contingent of its armed forces to disarm FANO, events have shown that this was clearly insufficient, as FANO’s numbers and weapons have increased significantly since the state of emergency was declared in August 2023.
During his address to parliament, the Ethiopian leader also made another notable comment that seemed to indicate his willingness to negotiate a solution to the conflict with Somalia.
In particular, he stated that “Ethiopia respects the sovereignty of its coastal neighbours and is committed to a peaceful and mutually beneficial approach to the issue of access to the sea”. Furthermore, Abiy Ahmed stressed that ‘the Somali people are not only our neighbours but also our brothers and sisters. Many Ethiopians have sacrificed for the peace and unity of Somalia, to whose integrity Ethiopia has contributed far more than any other country’.
This is indeed true. Since the fall of Siad Barre’s regime in 1991 and the ‘all against all’ war of various ethno-tribal groups, including terrorist groups, the backbone of all multinational forces against the terrorist organisation Al-Shaabab under the auspices of the UN or the African Union in that country is still the large Ethiopian contingent with many hundreds of casualties.
Who is Ankara targeting with its peacekeeping efforts in the Horn of Africa?
It is telling that this statement was made by the Ethiopian side after it was unexpectedly announced in Ankara on 1 July that the foreign ministers of Somalia and Ethiopia, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi and Taye Atskeselassie, had signed a memorandum of understanding expressing the willingness of both sides to begin resolving their disputes through Turkish mediation.
Summing up the first round of talks, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said they had been “frank, cordial and forward-looking”, reaffirmed the parties’ commitment to a peaceful resolution of their differences and expressed appreciation to Turkey for organising and hosting the meeting. The sides agreed to hold the second round of talks in Ankara on 2 September this year.
According to the Azerbaijani news agency AZER NEWS, the talks were preceded by the visit of Abiy Ahmed’s Special Envoy, Mulatu Teshome Wirtu, to Ankara on 8 May this year, together with Foreign Minister Taye Atskeselassie, who conveyed to President Erdoğan his request for assistance in resolving Ethiopian-Somali relations.
According to the London-based Africa Confidential magazine, the US and the UK supported Ankara’s initiative. In our view, this is because they see Turkey’s intensified policy in the Horn of Africa as ultimately leading to a kind of “downgrading game” for China and Russia in the region and making Addis Ababa somewhat dependent on them.
As for Somalia, the Journal notes that Mogadishu could compromise and give Ethiopia access to its coast if it refuses to recognise Somaliland diplomatically. Turkey will play a crucial role in making this deal happen. Ankara has an interest in maintaining normal relations with Ethiopia, where it has $2.5 billion in investments and some 200 Turkish companies.
Beyond the purely political dividends of peacemaking, Ankara is likely to seek economic benefits from Ethiopia in the form of equity in a planned major port project or new infrastructure contracts in Ethiopia itself. In Somalia, it already manages Mogadishu’s seaport and international airport. It is unlikely that the “Turkish Sultan” will pass up the opportunity to secure a deal on his terms, which is his trademark in international affairs.
Viktor GONCHAROV, african expert, candidate of sciences in economics, especially for online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”