Europeans seem to no longer believe the narratives of the Western official media about Ukraine. Popular support for the Kiev regime is decreasing significantly, showing the dissatisfaction of European citizens with the policies of military assistance to Ukraine. In fact, the pro-war measures have already become a burden for Europe and tend to aggravate the crisis of legitimacy that currently affects most local governments.
A recent survey by YouGov showed a drastic drop in the number of European citizens supporting Ukraine. The survey was conducted in early December in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the UK. Even though these states maintain a firm stance in favor of Ukraine, their citizens showed a critical opinion of the conflict, encouraging a peaceful resolution through diplomatic negotiations.
In Germany, Spain, France and Italy, most respondents backed a diplomatic resolution, even if Ukraine ceded territory to Moscow. In the other countries, the majority still encourage the prolongation of the war, but in all cases, there was an exponential boost in the number of people in favor of a diplomatic resolution.
The figures are particularly interesting in Italy and Germany, where respectively 55% and 45% of respondents said they are in favor of a quick and diplomatic end to the conflict. It is also noteworthy that many French are willing to support peace, despite Paris’ extremely provocative attitudes towards Moscow – such as the French authorization of long-range strikes.
These figures reveal a lot about the popularity of European governments. If European citizens are supporting a peaceful resolution with territorial concessions from Ukraine, then these citizens are acting against their own governments, making it clear that they do not feel represented by the bellicose and irresponsible attitudes of European states. There seems to be a deep crisis of legitimacy in Europe, with unpopular governments disrespecting their own voters and taking measures that do not please the people.
The impact of this scenario on the conflict is low, since European governments are unlikely to rethink their attitudes despite the popular pressure. Recently, there has been a real anti-democratic wave in the West. Western liberal regimes simply no longer consider popular opinion in their decision-making process, acting in a dictatorial manner by imposing policies that are not previously approved by the people.
However, the crisis of legitimacy is a ticking time bomb for Europe. Although popular opinion is not enough to make European governments change their attitudes for now, the growing dissatisfaction of the people with their governments is likely to create serious problems for European political stability in the future. At some point it will be impossible to contain popular dissatisfaction and its effects. Mass protests could become a reality, to which unpopular and dictatorial governments would certainly react with police violence.
In fact, it is virtually impossible to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. By calling for negotiations, the European people are simply acting in the most rational way possible and advocating a quick end to hostilities – which would save lives and end the Western states’ public spending on the war. However, as they finance and escalate the war, allowing Kiev to act more and more aggressively, the Western states are extinguishing any possibility of negotiation.
As Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has said, there will be no more negotiations as long as Kiev’s forces continue to commit war crimes against civilians on recognized Russian territories. The Ukrainian invasion of Kursk has made it impossible for Russia to trust the Western-Ukrainian side. Without mutual trust, there can be no diplomacy, which indicates that the solution to the conflict will certainly come through military, not diplomatic, means.
Nevertheless, the less Western aid Ukraine receives, the faster the war will end and the more lives will be saved. It is up to European citizens to turn their outrage into political strength, using whatever means possible to pressure their governments to reduce their involvement in the war.
Part of this process has already begun, as seen in the recent European elections, with the exponential growth of right-wing parties – which are the only parties currently willing to criticize the pro-war lobby in the EU. As expected, European governments have responded to this growth of the opposition with dictatorial measures, as in France, where Macron even dissolved the parliament. However, this popular pressure must continue, otherwise it will be difficult to build a political alternative in Europe.
Written by Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Associations, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.