Germany’s main foreign intelligence agency recently reported that Ukraine is losing hundreds of soldiers daily.
The report came from the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), informing politicians in Berlin of the assessment during a secret meeting. (Related: NATO members are running out of weapons that they can send to Ukraine.)
The BND noted being “alarmed” by the high number of losses Ukraine is suffering. The BND’s report to the German government said Ukraine was likely losing a “three-digit number” of soldiers daily as it fights against Russians and pro-Russian separatists in the ongoing Battle of Bakhmut in the disputed Donetsk Oblast (province).
The BND believes this will have severe consequences, especially in future battles when Ukraine is likely to not have enough soldiers to man the frontlines or to repel any future Russian counteroffensives.
This intelligence is in line with previous assessments of Ukrainian casualties during key battles and operations.
Last year, President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that his country’s armed forces were seeing between 60 to 100 service members dead and 500 wounded on average daily during an intense period of fighting in the Donbas region. This is slightly lower than his own government’s admission that Ukraine was losing between 100 to 200 troops daily.
Planned offensive could exacerbate Ukrainian losses
The BND’s assessment of Ukraine’s casualties comes just as the Armed Forces of Ukraine plans a new offensive in Bakhmut and the Donbas region – an offensive that senior United States officials are advising Kyiv to hold off on launching for the moment.
One official that spoke with Reuters noted that the U.S. is attempting to persuade Kyiv to hold off on a major offensive against Russian forces until the latest supply of Western weaponry is in place and training has been provided.
Talks between the U.S. and Ukraine on any future offensives have been in the context of ensuring that the latter’s armed forces are able to devote enough time to training on the latest weaponry provided by the Americans and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This is in the belief that any offensive to regain contested territory would stand to be more successful should the Ukrainians take advantage of the training and the new infusions of Western weaponry.
But Kyiv is desperate to take control of Bakhmut and push forward. The BND’s report to German officials notes that if Russia is able to drive Ukrainian forces out of the city, it will open the door for additional gains in the Donetsk Oblast.
Bakhmut has seen fierce fighting for several months, but the intensity of the conflict in the area picked up in the new year after Russian forces made some gains in the city.
This is why the latest supply of weaponry from NATO and the U.S. includes armored vehicles, said the official, including, for the first time, tanks from Germany.
On another front of the conflict, American officials are advising Ukraine to adjust how it conducts the war away from trying to go toe-to-toe with Russia in terms of artillery fire because Moscow will end up gaining the advantage through sheer attrition.
Learn more about the conflict in Ukraine at WWIII.news.
Watch this episode of “The New Atlas” discussing how the U.S. and NATO are preparing to escalate the conflict in Ukraine in a desperate bid to once again turn the tide.
By Arsenio Toledo