Grimmer Every Day
The situation for Ukraine looks grimmer every day.
Zelensky as late as 7 March 2023 promised on CNN that Ukraine would “de-block” Russia’s siege of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) because a Russian conquest of Artemovsk would create an “open road” for Russia in eastern Ukraine. According to several reports, Zelensky concentrated no less than 80,000 troops for the purpose of “de-blocking” Artemovsk. Now, 1½ months after Zelensky’s promise on CNN to “de-block” Artemovsk – what has Ukraine achieved? Only humiliating losses.
Ukraine is today pressed back to a corner of only a few city-blocks in Artemovsk. Ukraine holds just 1,400 m x 2,400 m in western Artemovsk. Like a melting ice flake, Ukraine every day loses 200 meters on each side. Russia is also advancing north around Artemovsk, strengthening Russia’s flanks and creating Russian physical control of the last supply road 506. Meanwhile, Russia also presses Ukraine everywhere else on the 600 km frontline. Ukrainian losses are regularly more than 400 dead in Artemovsk alone per day. Ukraine’s loss of Artemovsk in a week is a foregone conclusion.
West Getting Afraid
Even the Washington Post (WaPo) shows a map of Russia’s progress around Artemovsk, and WaPo is becoming scared and angry at Zelensky about the inevitable loss of Artemovsk (Bakhmut). This is a sign of things to come. Why should Ukraine ever be able to achieve any battle-field gains, if Ukraine cannot even hold Artemovsk after keeping and losing all its troops inside the city, and committing 80,000 troops for their rescue? Nervousness is spreading in the West, and everybody in Kiev and Washington is now busy downplaying expectations of any Ukrainian battlefield gains. Kyiv Post warns that Ukraine’s upcoming “biggest counteroffensive” may no longer be able to take Crimea. Kyiv Post is even getting panicky that lack of progress in Ukraine’s upcoming “biggest counteroffensive” will only result in extreme casualties and an “extinction level” of collapse for Ukraine:
Unsuccessful offensives, particularly with high casualties, will have a catastrophic impact upon continued commercial, economic, humanitarian, military, and political support for Volodymyr Zelensky. It could be a near but not quite … extinction-level event for the government of Ukraine in terms of maintaining support from outside of Ukraine. See this.
Ukraine’s much-touted “counteroffensive” looks like a pre-programmed disaster. Zelensky may not survive it. With Ukraine running out of air defense missiles and artillery shells, and Russia stepping up the use of cheap 500 kg and 1,500 kg guided glide bombs, even The New York Times is adjusting the Western public to a Ukrainian military failure:
But the reinforcements [of NATO equipment] still fall short of what even American military planners have assessed that Ukraine needs to make the most of an offensive expected to begin in coming weeks to retake more territory captured by the Russians. See this.
NATO’s secretary-general Stoltenberg has become so tired and worn down by Western troubles in the Ukraine war, that he has refused to stay on his post even for a single year more, once his term expires.
The World Is Watching
The whole World is beginning to expect the spectacle of the West going down in flames in Ukraine.
India makes a clear-eyed assessment: There is no “stalemate”. Ukraine and the West are going down. Ukraine is a WW I type of attrition, where movements in the lines on the ground do not truly reveal the losses and who is winning. Like Germany in 1918, Ukraine’s break-down will come suddenly once Ukraine and NATO run out of men, equipment, and will to fight-on.
China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Africa have undoubtedly reached the same conclusion.
Watch out for the domino-effect, when the illusion of US power meets reality in Ukraine.
*
Karsten Riise is a Master of Science (Econ) from Copenhagen Business School and has a university degree in Spanish Culture and Languages from Copenhagen University. He is the former Senior Vice President Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Mercedes-Benz in Denmark and Sweden.