Since the refugee crisis in 2015, it has become clear that the EU cannot shape its policies uniformly. The sanctions policy against Russia since 2014 has also not been so easy to organize.

Hungary is the best example of how a state defends itself against the patronage of the EU center and tries to protect its own interests.

During the refugee crisis, it was the entire Visegrád Group that opposed the liberal migration policy. At that time, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary were the only states in the EU to protect their own interests.

When it comes to policy towards Russia and the question of supporting Ukraine, Hungary is not entirely alone, as there are also critical forces in Slovakia. Unfortunately, things are different in the Czech Republic and especially in Poland, as a particularly aggressive mood against Russia is widespread there.

So we can really see Hungary as a great role model for defending national interests. The politics of this state have now also become a model for the Austrian opposition. It is known that many members of the FPÖ (Freedom Party of Austria) regularly attend meetings in Budapest. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is clearly known in Europe for his course and is considered a hero by many opposition groups.

In France, even before the elections, there is a talk of a movement to the right. It is clear that the patriotic forces will receive many percent. The reason for this is President Macron’s catastrophic policies. However, the ruling system in France always has the opportunity to let all other parties march together against the right. Let’s just think about what happened in Germany before the EU elections. There were the “marches against the right” and the mobilization of artists and public figures. The system always tries to prevent the right opposition from winning at all levels.

If parliamentary elections also take place in Austria in 2024 (the date is proposed by the government for September 29th), then it can also be expected that the FPÖ will win a lot. And here, too, it is to be expected that a very tough election campaign will be conducted. Dirty campaigns against the FPÖ are nothing new.

But in reality, all the right opposition parties have the same problem – the system always prevents them from finding a good partner to form a coalition. And in those cases where such a coalition and government does emerge, it is usually destroyed by betrayal or other dirty campaigns.

Often these parties are not very careful in selecting candidates for government and important positions. Some people are then susceptible to blackmail or are too weak to withstand pressure. This is then used as an opportunity by the political opponent. There are already many examples of this from history. There have been many of these scandals, especially in Austrian politics, which have repeatedly weakened or destroyed the already established forces. A strong network of party structures and media is able to organize a major campaign at any time to weaken the political opponent.

The next problem is that most right-wing parties are mostly liberal. In a normal political system there should also be left-wing forces that are patriotic. These would then be potential candidates for a coalition.

But with the current set-up of parties in most European countries, a situation arises where a single liberal right-wing party has to oppose all other parties, which also have no interest in a coalition. The basic prerequisites for a coalition government are therefore not met.

But what developments can we expect after the EU elections?

The result of the elections shows us clearly where the national parliaments will develop. All right-wing parties can be expected to be successful. But the politics of exclusion, which is already prepared by the system, will be the worst conditions for participation in government.

The example of Hungary will continue to encourage opposition forces in other countries to aim for participation in the government.

The greatest hope is that there will be changes in some established parties who realistically recognize the current situation in Europe and want to solve the problems.

Since there are different interest group lobbies in many parties, it is possible that some parties will have to change course in relation to the right opposition.

It is also possible that there will be revolts among voters or individual sections in some parties. Their positions and the associated salaries are also important to MPs and officials. This means they cannot support a political course that turns voters towards their political opponents.