The prospect of an early dissolution of the lower house of parliament, with an immediate deadline set for the election of a new parliament, is gradually coming to the forefront of Japan’s domestic political turmoil. Under the current constitution, the prime minister has this power and usually uses it for certain purposes. More often than not, it is an act of obtaining the vote of confidence from the population by the then ruling political bloc. The very fact of which, of course, must be predictable. Otherwise, what’s the point of doing it all.
Usually, this political technique is used to demonstrate to the population that some (not very popular, to put it mildly) measures outlined by the current government are actually in the interests of the former: “You’ve elected us again. So you’ve gotta be mostly satisfied. Your kitchen cackle notwithstanding. And anyway, guys, don’t worry about it. It’s going to be OK.”
The last time the Liberal Democratic Party, which ruled for most of the post-war period (with a few exceptions), resorted to such a device was in autumn 2021, when the population needed to be shown that their “just dissatisfaction” with the state of affairs in the country was mainly due to a “personal” factor: “We replace the prime minister and then it will be OK again.”
Thus the current Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, who has by now accumulated a sea of problems, found himself at the helm of the government. All of them require an urgent solution, or at least an imitation of one. Despite the fact that the proposed solutions are not (again, to put it mildly) popular or, on the contrary, seem belated and insufficient. And some of these problems have a strong international component.
At the top two of the list of headaches for the incumbent government are the persistent decline in the birth rate (as well as the female “fertility rate”) and the search for sources of finance to support plans for a dramatic increase in the country’s defense capabilities. Both are in direct opposition to one another in terms of content and meaning, as well as financially.
Young people see no point in continuing to have children in the face of increasing general anxiety about the immediate future. Which is substantially provoked by the process of “sublimation” of the very topic of “increasing external threats.” The latest act in the process was the media fuss over the (alleged) downing of two North Korean missiles in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Interest Zone (not in the border zone, mind you). Which were launched in response to an all-out military build-up by the DPRK’s regional opponents.
The very fact of the incident is backed up by the “testimony” of some Japanese fishermen, one of whom even heard “the slap in the water from a falling rocket.” Apparently, it is rhetorical to ask where such expertise in distinguishing “by the slap” of objects falling into the water comes from. Because the whole “fishermen episode” is clearly a long-standing propaganda campaign that still uses the “North Korean threat factor” as justification for an all-out defense activism in both Japan and its closest ally, the US.
Although the real target of such activism is, of course, the PRC. It is also increasingly being identified as such a threat in the media space. Plans to double Japanese military expenditure over the next five years, for example, are publicly justified largely on the basis of the “China factor.”
Nevertheless, Japan has been debating for months where to get the money to implement such plans. Taking into account, again, other, at least no less “financially demanding” problems. First and foremost, the key one, which is due to the need to finance a set of measures to encourage Japanese young people to have children. It would be political suicide for the LDP to use the “traditional” source of supplementing the state budget by raising taxes. At a time when the economy of both the country as a whole and ordinary citizens are just beginning (timidly) to recover from the consequences of the severe blow inflicted on it by all the concomitants of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The parliamentary decision on the government request for higher spending on defense, youth aid and a number of other items, which was adopted on June 7, therefore, offers a message along the lines of the following: “Take action. But without increasing taxation.”
However, expert assessments from “non-tax” sources that have since emerged do not yet reconcile the stated “ambitions” with the available “ammunition” in any way. And it is already being said that increases in various kinds of child benefits will not begin until late 2024, and that their overall doubling should not be expected before “the early 2030s.”
Therefore, in anticipation of using something “not very popular” to solve this problem, it is a good idea to get some indication of the general confidence of the population in the ruling political grouping. And what better way to do so than by winning a general election, that is, during the main action of any “democratic” system of government.
Kishida’s government would not be out of place today to secure such an approval on a number of other rather “noisy” occasions. Let us point to the same current ideological mainstream focused on “private values,” which is spread by certain forces hiding behind the backs of G7 officials. The current Japanese leadership has been stalling over the adoption of a special law to “protect the rights of LGBT communities.”
But forces were unequal and with Japan holding the presidency of the G7 this year, the law had to be passed in the course of the current parliamentary session. With a number of ambiguities, it was still provisionally approved by the LDP parliamentary faction. Allegedly, “under extreme pressure” from the prime minister.
Incidentally, no such special law exists in any of the G7 countries. In an already heated debate on all aspects of the adopted law, attention is drawn, in particular, to the fact that the current constitution fully ensures all the civil rights of the “sexually deviant” as well. It is unclear why the lawmakers needed to pay special attention to them.
In general, one gets the impression that both losers of the last global massacre have not been completely dealt with by someone. However, in relation to Japan’s main ally of the time, the weapons used are mainly “green economy.” According to the “green” agenda, pipelines supplying cheap gas to Germany become redundant.
It seems that this not entirely clear “someone” is also behind the process of provoking a new global massacre. And the military hysteria is being stirred up mainly by the rear “pike men” on both sides of the looming conflict.
While those involved in actual combat are almost always on anti-war positions. Earlier, the NEO had mentioned a speech to students at a certain Japanese college by two surviving World War II kamikaze pilots. More recently, a former Japanese submarine sailor and his colleague (then enemy) from an American heavy cruiser (USS Indianapolis, CA-35), sunk by that boat two weeks before the end of the war in the Pacific, chatted along the same lines.
It would make sense to conclude by referring to another “noisy” problem of the current Japanese government, for whose solution the latter would also do well to seek some kind of approval. And not just of its own population, but of the “world community” as well. As the issue has an ‘international’ component, it has a strong international dimension to it.
At issue is the inevitable (let’s stress it again) release into the ocean of the accumulated and allegedly “well-cleaned” water (one million cubic meters) that was used to cool the damaged reactors of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Which could start in the coming weeks. If this problem is not handled carefully enough, the incumbent Japanese government itself may “drain the waters.” In the vernacular interpretation of this verbal turn of phrase.
The same Japanese fishermen, in a meeting with the prime minister, sharply opposed, as already competitors in international markets stirred up the theme of the “Japanese trading in radioactive fish.” After the Fukushima drain, however, the Japanese fisherman’s business is predicted to collapse.
But we also have to take into account the factor of using this upcoming event by Japan’s political opponents as well. To counter the “insinuations,” experts from South Korea, with which Japan’s relations seem to be improving, were invited to Fukushima Daiichi. The guests’ conclusions on the quality of the “treated” water were generally favorable, with comments on the need for “some further examination.”
All in all, the incumbent Japanese prime minister has plenty of reasons to appeal to the electorate for support. However, the “threshold” ratings seem to have plunged him into a state of deep thought. Which, according to the latest information, will last at least “until the end of the current parliamentary session.” It has another couple of months, though.
So, we’re waiting.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online journal “New Eastern Outlook.”