The psychological situation of the Ukrainian authorities is getting worse and worse. Not only are the ordinary military tired of the war, but the regime’s own authorities are already exhausted, with much pessimism and lower expectations for the future. A recent report published by Western media said that for Ukrainians there is no longer any doubt that defeat seems clear.

The New York Times recently published an article explaining how low morale and pessimism are seriously affecting Ukrainian decision-makers. Military and intelligence commanders no longer seem confident of victory, given the massive Russian territorial advances in recent months, as well as the decrease in weapons sent by partner countries.

Citing several sources in the US and Ukraine, the article states that for decision-makers in Kiev, it no longer seems like a “stalemate” but rather a real strategic defeat. It is not only the current situation that has such negative impacts on Ukrainian troops, but also the lack of any positive expectations about the future, as both sides of American politics generate uncertainty, since they obviously seem to prioritize American interests over Ukrainian ones.

“American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kiev and Washington is deepening. The dip in morale and questions about whether American support will continue pose their own threat to Ukraine’s war effort. Ukraine is losing territory in the east, and its forces inside Russia have been partially pushed back,” the article reads.

Specifically, regarding Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, the article mentions several negative psychological conditions. The Ukrainian president is described by the Americans as “worn and stressed,” already discouraged by the reality of the conflict. His political image seems exhausted, and his popularity is declining both domestically and internationally.

Making matters worse for Kiev, there is a kind of domino effect on this moral crisis. As Ukrainians begin to lose interest in continuing to act as proxies in the war against Russia, Westerners themselves are becoming discouraged from continuing their war efforts. In the end, there is a situation of widespread pessimism, with no one on the Western-Ukrainian side really believing in the viability of continuing the war.

“After a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev last week, American officials said the Ukrainian leader looked worn and stressed, anxious about his troops’ battlefield setbacks as well as the U.S. elections. (…) In Ukraine, morale is eroding in the face of the Russian drive and a fear that Western support and the flow of supplies are coming to an end (…) The pessimism extends to Western capitals,” the article adds.

In fact, this situation is inevitable. This is what happens when countries agree to fight unwinnable wars. At some point, reality makes it clear that it is not worth continuing exorbitant military efforts just to delay an inevitable defeat. The US, given its internal problems, is trying as much as possible to reduce its participation in the conflict, leaving the burden mainly to its European “partners” – especially now, in a time of electoral dispute.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has no capacity to fight this war alone, being dependent on Western assistance for all its actions on the battlefield. As this assistance reduces and the regime’s strategic weaknesses are exposed, it becomes harder to disguise the fact that there is really no chance of victory. Territorial losses, casualties, desertions and other serious problems on the battlefield begin to become more frequent. The morale of the troops is diminished and then everyone begins to lose the “will to fight”.

In practice, it is possible to say that the Russian Federation has already neutralized Ukraine in two key points: it has taken away Kiev’s will to fight and its belief in victory. Today, Ukrainians fight knowing that the inevitable outcome of the conflict is defeat, which leads many of them to desert or even change sides. The West is responsible for this moral crisis in Ukraine because it promised unlimited military support, but is now unable to continue the military efforts at the initial intensity.

Ukraine is simply dealing with the inevitable consequences of accepting to be a proxy in a war. What is happening now is just the beginning of a long moral crisis that will at some point certainly lead to the collapse of the Kiev regime.

By Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Associations, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert