OneWorld is publishing the English version of the brief interview that Andrew Korybko gave to Bizim.Media’s Tehran Orucoglu about the Ukrainian Conflict, which was first released under the title “Amerikalı politoloq: ‘ABŞ-ın bəzi rəsmiləri artıq Ukraynanın qalib gələcəyinə inanmır’”.
1. The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for a long time. What impact have sanctions had on this conflict?
The sanctions are unprecedented in scale, scope, and number, but they’ve failed to have any impact on the course of the conflict, which Russia regards as a special military operation to uphold the integrity of its national security red lines while Ukraine considers it to be an unprovoked invasion. There are three reasons why the sanctions haven’t worked as intended.
First, Russia demanded that newly designated unfriendly countries pay for gas with rubles, which strengthened its currency. Second, the sanctions spiked energy prices, which led to Russia making more money thus far this year from resource sales than previously, including from Asian customers. And third, no economic pressure will force Russia to concede on an issue that it regards as a national security one.
2. The European Union and Britain are increasing their arms supplies to Ukraine. What difficulties does this create for Russia?
Foreign military support to Ukraine has failed to stop Russia’s slow but steady advance as proven by recent developments in Donbass whereby Kiev’s forces have been compelled to retreat from some key cities. Foreign arms require proper training to use, which delays the time it takes for them to be used on the battlefield. Those that aren’t destroyed and make it to the front usually end up there too late.
These observations suggest that there might be ulterior motives behind selling Ukraine more arms. They aren’t the game-changers that they’re presented as, but are profitable opportunities for the military-industrial complex. Even CNN, which is close to the Biden Administration, reported on Tuesday that some officials no longer expect Ukraine to win despite the $56 billion in aid that the US just gave it.
3. Does Russia intend to end the war?
Russia has consistently made it known that it hopes to wrap up its special military operation as soon as possible, ideally through diplomatic means, absent which it’ll continue relying on military ones in order to uphold the integrity of its national security red lines in Ukraine. In fact, it even wanted to prevent the conflict last December when it shared its security guarantee requests with the US and NATO.
Russia’s goals are several: stop what it considers Kiev’s genocide of the Donbass people; demilitarize and denazify that country; and ensure its constitutional neutrality. There are different metrics for assessing the success thus far of each of these goals, but Foreign Minister Lavrov confirmed in late May that “The liberation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, recognized by the Russian Federation as independent states, is an unconditional priority” for his country.
The interview was originally published at Bizim.Media under the title “Amerikalı politoloq: ‘ABŞ-ın bəzi rəsmiləri artıq Ukraynanın qalib gələcəyinə inanmır’”.