What Senator Menendez demands is nothing short of a soft coup brought about by voluntarily reversing Kyrgyzstan’s recent “Democratic Security” successes under the Damocles’ sword of “security and economic” consequences if it dares to refuse. If he has his way, then suspected Color Revolutionaries will be released from prison, Western “NGO” intel fronts will be allowed to meddle with impunity, and their allied propaganda outlets will once again incessantly spew anti-state disinformation for provoking riots.
Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob Menendez conveyed his country’s intentions to overthrow the Kyrgyz government in the letter that he sent to President Sadyr Japarov last week. It’s even more damning than the newly leaked Pakistani cable from March 2022 regarding US pressure over Russia that implicated a leading diplomat in that country’s post-modern coup one month later. The present piece will point out the threats in Menendez’s letter and place them in the geostrategic context.
Right off the bat, he declared that “I write to you with deep concern regarding allegations of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic’s assistance to the Russian Federation, or its proxies, in evading international sanctions, imposed with respect to Russia’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine.” This follows Kyrgyzstan’s foiled coup attempt in early June that was analyzed here and the Washington Post’s (WaPo) report last month on its role in facilitating Russia’s purchase of Western-sanctioned tech from China.
That way that events have thus far unfolded strongly suggests that the failed effort to overthrow the Kyrgyz government just two months ago was intended to punish it for allegedly violating the West’s anti-Russian sanctions regime. Afterwards, WaPo published their report to precondition the public to think that Kyrgyzstan is turning into a “rogue state”, which was meant to make the target audience more likely to accept Menendez’s threatening letter and the US-orchestrated destabilization campaign that’ll follow.
The Senator continued by writing that “I urge the Kyrgyz government to swiftly investigate these allegations and to establish more reliable processes to prevent the illicit flow of goods through your territory bound for Russia. I am also concerned that the Kyrgyz Republic’s failure to uphold international sanctions reflects the alarming erosion in democratic governance and extensive human rights violations occurring in the country.”
Kyrgyzstan doesn’t have to initiate any investigation on any country’s demand, but even if it was driven to do so by the desire to de-escalate rapidly worsening political tensions with the US, this would be futile unless it went along with the narrative that it allegedly violated the West’s anti-Russian sanctions. Anything less would be dismissed as a “sham” and exploited as the pretext to impose even more pressure upon it, which brings the analysis around to the next part of Menendez’s statement.
His unsolicited commentary on Kyrgyzstan’s domestic affairs takes WaPo’s preconditioning even further by making explicit what was previously only implied about that country becoming a “rogue state”. After once again lambasting it for allegedly violating the West’s unilateral restrictions, he then defends them on the grounds that they’re “a vital tool in holding Vladimir Putin to account and reducing threats to the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of other nations, including those in Central Asia.
All of this built up to the threat that he then conveyed in his letter when writing that “In the face of potential threats from Russia, the United States remains steadfast in our support of upholding the sovereignty and independence of nations like the Kyrgyz Republic. However, assisting or permitting systemic sanctions evasion by Russia weakens their effectiveness, which could put at risk the security and economic interests of the Kyrgyz people.”
Menendez’s twisted logic is that the US imposed its anti-Russian sanctions on the partial pretext of supposedly defending Kyrgyzstan’s “sovereignty and independence” from Moscow without ever having asked Bishkek ahead of time and now it claims that the latter’s alleged violation of them will endanger it. Objectively speaking, “the security and economic interests of the Kyrgyz people” are “put at risk” by capitulating to American pressure dump their Russian ally, not strengthening ties with it.
The only realistic way in which Kyrgyzstan’s aforesaid interests “could be put at risk” by defying the US’ demands is if Washington ramps up its support for Color Revolution agents and rebels/militants/terrorists in parallel with imposing crushing secondary sanctions in response. These scenarios would have remained speculative and the Mainstream Media could have gaslit that they’re “conspiracy theories” had Menendez not threatened that these same interests might soon be harmed.
He then went for the kill shot:
“Furthermore, I fear that Kyrgyzstan’s failure to uphold international sanctions on Russia is simply a symptom of its continued democratic backsliding and widespread human rights violations. Your government has weakened institutions, repeatedly violated the rights of journalists and independent media, harassed human rights defenders, and placed restrictions on civil society actors.
A once shining beacon of democracy in Central Asia, the Kyrgyz Republic is headed down a dangerous path toward autocracy. I urge you to lift all restrictions on independent media and journalists, release imprisoned human rights defenders, and repeal measures restricting fundamental freedoms such as the freedom of association.”
This is a de facto declaration of Hybrid War.
What Menendez demands is nothing short of a soft coup brought about by voluntarily reversing Kyrgyzstan’s recent “Democratic Security” successes under the Damocles’ sword of “security and economic” consequences if it dares to refuse. The preceding concept refers to the wide range of counter-Hybrid Warfare tactics and strategies that President Japarov employed to safeguard his country’s national model of democracy from associated threats.
If Menendez has his way, however, then suspected Color Revolutionaries will be released from prison, Western “NGO” intel fronts will be allowed to meddle with impunity, and their allied propaganda outlets will once again incessantly spew anti-state disinformation for provoking riots. He then ended his letter on an ominous note by writing that “Your government’s commitment to these matters is critical for the security and prosperity of the Kyrgyz people. We look forward to receiving your prompt response.”
Neighboring Kazakhstan has already capitulated to American pressure to informally take its side over Russia’s in the New Cold War as proven by its partial compliance with the West’s sanctions regime. It also refuses to close its over $100 million biosecurity laboratory that’s funded by the US. Furthermore, the latest news that it’ll host Microsoft’s regional hub was met with harsh criticism from Moscow after Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin described these plans as serving the US’ intelligence interests.
By contrast, Kyrgyzstan refuses to follow in Kazakhstan’s footsteps and remains committed to maximizing the mutual benefits from its strategic partnership with Russia, which is all the more impressive when remembering that it’s smaller, less developed, and historically more unstable than its northern neighbor. Moscow appreciates this display of sovereignty and is actively implementing workarounds to retain trade with Bishkek in the event that Astana’s compliance with Western sanctions ends up impeding this.
The Governor of Astrakhan Region announced the creation last month of the “Southern Transport Corridor” across the Caspian Sea, which is more expensive and time-consuming than trading with the Central Asian Republics across Kazakhstan but makes up for these costs by being outside of US influence. As this analysis already explained, Kyrgyzstan is a stalwart Russian ally, just like the rest of the region remains apart from newly wayward and increasingly treacherous Kazakhstan.
For these reasons, Russia is expected to help those four countries withstand the “security and economic” punishments that the US might soon inflict on them for their brave defiance of its sanctions pressure, beginning with Kyrgyzstan. Its potential descent into Hybrid War havoc could have far-reaching consequences for all of Central Asia due to the very high risk of overspill, which is why it’s imperative for Russia to thwart the US’ impending destabilization plans lest a “second containment front” emerge.
By Andrew Korybko