Bilateral relations between Cuba and Mexico – survivors of the Monroe Doctrine and the US Embargo – have increased in activity throughout 2022 as part of joint efforts to expand their economic activities into new fruitful ventures with each other. On May 4, Mexican airline Aeromar increased weekly flights to the Caribbean island, followed by May 8, when President Miguel Díaz-Canel and his Mexican counterpart, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, agreed to work firmly on their bilateral relations and consolidate a new stage of collaboration. In health Mexico will hire 500 Cuban doctors following the signing of a health agreement by AMLO during his visit to Havana as part of this recent intensification of bilateral relations between Cuba and Mexico. The most recent of these increases in relations between Cuba and Mexico took place on July 14 and 15 at the bilateral business forum where 12 agreements were signed with the main objective of expanding investments of the Latin American giant on the island, seeking to consolidate and increase economic and financial contact. These first agreements under AMLO’s administration, if successful, will encourage Mexico to redouble its efforts in Cuba.

Economically and commercially, Cuba is between the Canada-EU bloc and the Multipolar Bloc / Global South. If we take a look at its trade breakdown it is evident that Cuba is not purely multipolar, or even mostly Global South. In addition to the most relevant bilateral trade agreements it has with Venezuela, China, Russia, Mexico and India, both Canada and the European Union do continue to be very important trade partners of Cuba, especially thanks to the weight of Spain and the Netherlands. So it is necessary to make tangible the potential of Cuba’s productive sector in terms of Russia’s needs, and how it can increase its business on the island by taking advantage of opportunities created by Cuba’s bilateral relations with third countries.

How Russia can benefit

Cuba, like all countries, should have the right to diversify its economic partners as it pleases since the friendly competition between Russia, China, India and Mexico that emerges from this new multipolar market would benefit the Cuban people by securing better contracts. The U.S. economic and financial paradigm frames everything in a zero-sum perspective. That paradigm is incorrect as it is not useful for evaluating the relations of the Global South. Therefore, the envisioned roles in the industrialization and development of economic sectors in Cuba could be both complementary and competitive – Not just kill or be killed capitalism – but will ultimately depend on the art of negotiation and the capacity for persuasion among the actors involved.

Each of Cuba’s multipolar partners specializes in something different. Russia is known for its high-quality energy infrastructure, which shows its engineering mastery and geo-economic inventiveness, Indian companies are already involved in important commercial and monetary activities in Cuba, Chinese companies are world leaders in information technologies and telecommunications and transportation infrastructure. It should be understood that all this joint work will stimulate the strengthening of the Cuban state, thus improving the capabilities of its labor force, making the economy and society as a whole more efficient and productive.

The arrival in July in Cuba of a Russian tanker called the Suvorovsky Prospect with some 700,000 barrels of fuel, valued at about $70 million at the current market price of the product, is evidence that the Eurasian giant is aware of the vital importance of energy to every state, since the amount of energy a country has dictates limits on production itself – as Europe is apparently relearning. The tanker brings supplies for Cuban power plants and in turn gives Russia a chance at new customers in the face of US-led Western sanctions. The ship is owned by Sovcomflot, Russia’s largest shipping company – which is under British, Canadian and US sanctions.

Russia and China as well as Venezuela and Mexico, as main multipolar allies of the Cuban government, have an important role to play in the process of industrialization and development of Cuban production capacity. As a result, and as a product of competition itself, companies from these countries will seek to improve their services, products and contracts with each other. China is one of the most promising partners in Cuba’s industrialization. This, because of its enormous market potential and its impressive financing capacity, as well as its help in the gradual multipolar neutralization of the U.S. embargo, and the inclusion of the Caribbean country in the Belt and Road Initiative.

Russia has a number of ways in which it can be part of reintroducing productivity to Cuba, from its expertise in energy exploration and exploitation to access to affordable energy, just to mention a few. More economic activity means more productivity, which brings with it the need for more energy, which can be met by a multipolar energy-producing business partner like Russia. In turn, the possibility of resuscitating the Cuban production capacity and accepting a number of imports that would place it among the top 10 buyers of Cuban goods could serve as a rehabilitator of the Cuban economy, and serve to optimize its ability to repay debt. Russia historically has always had a resounding impact on Cuban tourism, although it may fluctuate from year to year, it always increases significantly. For example, among the main emitters of tourism to the Caribbean island in 2021 is Russia, with 41%, followed by Canada with 20%, the Cuban Community Abroad with 15% and followed by Spain in fourth place. Similarly, the Eurasian giant is the 6th largest supplier of imports of goods to Cuba, however it is not currently among the 10 largest customers of Cuban exports.

The businesses of the countries already operating in the Mariel Special Development Zone are added to and complemented by the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could open up many market opportunities for all countries involved, including possibly Russia. For example, the Mariel Special Development Zone, in which 3 of the 11 businesses operating with some Mexican capital on the island are located – four being international economic associations, five joint ventures and two with wholly Mexican capital – would also link them more closely in a relationship of complex interdependence that serves the joint interests of all. The initiation of new economic relations between Cuba and Eurasia, South Asia, and East Asia through their combined bilateral relations will lead to more jobs, investment, and production, which will help Cuba avoid intense U.S. efforts to isolate it, destabilize it, and change its sovereign government.

All countries like Cuba, especially those that are developing and ravaged by decades of Hybrid Warfare, now made global as part of the New Cold War, understand the importance of cultivating closer economic ties with the Big 8 of the Global South such as the Russian Federation and the United Mexican States. That said, Cuba also wants to avoid exaggerated dependence on one particular partner, hence it maintains strategic economic relations with Russia and will probably even expand them in some areas to balance China and Canada. The joint labor of Mexico, India and Russia within a broader trans-regional integration initiative possibly led by China or another member of the Great 8 of the Global South would benefit all parties concerned and of course Cuba. By balancing the interests of its six major economic partners, Cuba will be able to engage them in its success and serve as proof of concept that they could cooperate together.