Zelensky’s forthcoming conscription drive might be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back and could result in the Maidan scenario and/or perhaps even the Zaluzhny-led mutiny that he’s so afraid of nowadays.

The EU’s official statistics body Eurostat confirmed that an estimated 650,000 military-age Ukrainian men entered the bloc since the start of Russia’s special operation, though they acknowledged that it could be much more since their data only accounts for those who’ve officially registered their status. The BBC reported on this shortly after Zelensky promised that a new conscription drive will begin next week, and the timing of their article can thus be interpreted as a subtle signal that they expect this policy to fail.

As it turns out, Zelensky’s parliamentary ally David Arakhamia admitted just the other day that former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson convinced the Ukrainians to abandon spring 2022’s Istanbul peace process with Russia despite the two warring sides having been on the brink of a deal. This makes the UK state broadcaster’s aforesaid signal bittersweet since their country is morally responsible at least in part for all the deaths over the past 20 months since Kiev pulled out of those peace talks.

“NATO’s Proxy War On Russia Through Ukraine Appears To Be Winding Down” for the many reasons enumerated in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, yet instead of recommencing those same talks like the West is reportedly pressuring him to do, Zelensky is hellbent on perpetuating the conflict. “Time Magazine Shared Some ‘Politically Inconvenient’ Truths About Ukraine” last month, one of which was an unnamed senior advisor saying that he has a messianic delusion of victory, and this proves it.

Amidst his spiraling rivalry with Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny, which the New York Times made sure that everyone was aware of after publishing a surprisingly candid piece about political-military tensions in Ukraine earlier this month, it can’t be ruled out that a mutiny might materialize. Zelensky seems to sense that something of the sort is brewing too after he condemned military officials who get involved in politics in his latest interview with The Sun, which was clearly directed against Zaluzhny.

Ukraine’s top general provoked the president’s ire at the beginning of the month when he told The Economist that the conflict had entered a “stalemate”. This was the closest that Kiev came to admitting that its over-hyped and ultra-expensive counteroffensive failed exactly as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal informed their audience in late August. It also importantly channeled the sentiment of most Ukrainians, who’ve grown fatigued and frustrated with the conflict.

Zelensky feared that Zaluzhny’s tacit admission of the counteroffensive’s failure and the naturally implied need to freeze the conflict exactly as the West has reportedly been pressuring him to do could lead to the Commander-in-Chief challenging him in the next presidential elections. With a view towards preemptively averting the scenario of him losing out to his top general, who’s increasingly becoming Ukraine’s most popular figure, Zelensky shortly thereafter ruled out holding any elections next year.

This enraged the populace, which even the BBC was forced to acknowledge in their piece about the “fierce row” that unfolded as a result of his authoritarian decision, and anti-government sentiment is expected to rise even further upon the unveiling of his new conscription drive sometime next week. “Zelensky Is Desperate To Preemptively Discredit Potentially Forthcoming Protests Against Him” after it became obvious that they’re about to begin, ergo why he claimed that Russia is plotting a “Maidan 3”.

Nobody believes that the Kremlin still has the influence over Ukrainian society that’s required to pull off that sort of regime change operation, but Zelensky could care less since the whole reason why he lied about this was to deter protesters and justify the secret police’s crackdown against those who defy him. His forthcoming conscription drive might be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back, however, and could result in the Maidan scenario and/or perhaps even the mutiny that he’s so afraid of nowadays.

By Andrew Korybko