The morale of the Syrian Army, Assad’s friends busy elsewhere, strong Erdogan’s support and poor intelligence appear to be at the heart of Assad’s regime’s downfall. Israel is the big winner.

Who is Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and its Leader?

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham* (HTS) is a Syrian rebel group that emerged in 2017 from the merger of various Islamist factions, including Jabhat al-Nusra*, which was previously affiliated with al-Qaeda*. HTS primarily operates in northwestern Syria, particularly in Idlib province. The group has established the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib, governing a population of nearly four million.

The leader of HTS is Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, who previously led Jabhat al-Nusra*. Born to Syrian parents in Saudi Arabia, Jawlani joined al-Qaeda* in Iraq during the U.S. invasion in 2003, gaining military and leadership experience. In 2011, he returned to Syria to establish Jabhat al-Nusra* as part of the opposition to Bashar al-Assad’s regime, aiming to replace it with a governance system based on its interpretation of Islamic law.

Over time, Jawlani rebranded the group, distancing HTS from al-Qaeda* to emphasise a localised focus on Syria. While claiming a commitment to Syrian interests, its governance and operations remain controversial, with Western nations, including the United States, the European Union and the UK, designating HTS as a terrorist organisation due to its origins and activities​. Despite this, several Western governments saluted the regime change in Syria.

The fall of Damascus was a culmination of factors, marking a turning point with deep implications for Syria and the broader regional and global geopolitical landscape.

The Swift Takeover by Hay’at al Tahrir al-Sham* (HTS)

The rapid takeover by Hay’at al Tahrir al-Sham* (HTS) and allied Syrian rebel groups can be analysed through several connected dynamics going on in Syria that set the stage for the fall of Assad’s regime. Following, I highlight a few reasons for the swift fall of Assad’s regime.

Localised Motivation and Displacement Dynamics

The rebels’ advance was fueled by a desire to reclaim areas from which they had been displaced, particularly in southern and eastern Idlib and western Aleppo. Many fighters had deep personal stakes in the campaign, with homes and families affected by their earlier displacement during Syrian government offensives.

Further, the depopulation of these contested areas, caused by years of conflict, allowed the rebels to face fewer civilian-related constraints, making their operations swifter and more decisive.

Weakness in Assad’s Forces: Low Morale and Exhaustion

Government forces were primarily composed of forcibly conscripted soldiers whose morale was notably poor and the exhaustion caused by the long years of combat. This undermining of their resistance, aggravated by the soldiers’ overdue pay, contrasted with the highly motivated rebel fighters.

Although outnumbering the rebels (the Syrian Arab Army counted between 50,000 and 100,000 troops and the HTS and its close allies about 25,000 men), years of attrition and internal issues had eroded the regime’s capacity to respond effectively to large-scale offensives. That said, further investigation into this matter is necessary.

Diminished Role of Key Allies

Russia and Iran were busy with their problems. For Russia, prioritising Ukraine over Syria is a strategic necessity, given the stakes involved in the European theatre.

Hezbollah, a critical ally of Assad, had recently experienced setbacks, including resource strain from its engagements in Lebanon and operational fatigue after prolonged involvement in Syria and Lebanon. Iranian-backed militia also faced logistical and strategic challenges, reducing their ability to support Assad’s forces.

Damascus fell without resistance, threatening Moscow’s Mediterranean bases and Tehran’s access to Lebanon. However, this doesn’t guarantee HTS’s success in ruling Syria, nor will Ankara’s newfound influence endure. HTS*, an Al-Qaeda* offshoot, lacks substantial allies. Syria’s Kurds are unlikely to be dominated easily, and Syria’s Arab neighbours, for whom the war on terror has not finished, certainly will oppose any HTS regime.

A Broader Conflict Seeking Hegemony

As outlined in its policy documents, such as Rand’s, the US strategy seeks to stretch Russia, Iran, and China to their limits by creating multiple conflicts along their peripheries. Russia, for instance, is not only embroiled in Ukraine but also faces challenges across Eastern Europe and Central Asia. These calculated provocations aim to force difficult choices and weaken the resolve of the multipolar coalition.

The real battlefield of the 21st century is the information space, an area where the US continues to dominate. Most of the world has effectively ceded control of its information ecosystems to Silicon Valley and the US State Department. Even the strongest militaries can be rendered ineffective if their populations are convinced to abandon their cause or turn their resources against their own nations. Assad’s nationalistic agenda had faded.

Conclusion

The rapid pathway from Idlib to Damascus exemplifies the interplay between local grievances, weakened state capacity, and shifting regional dynamics. HTS and its allies leveraged a combination of personal motivation, tactical cohesion, and the regime’s vulnerabilities to achieve an outcome that defied expectations.

HTS* capitalised on global distraction, with diminished attention on Syria due to other crises in Ukraine and the broader Middle East. Now, despite its past, HTS seeks international acceptance by capitalizing on Bashar al-Assad’s regime rejection.

One single element does not determine the fall of a regime, such as army size or intelligence. Public support plays a critical role as well. However, in Syria’s case, the dire state of the Syrian army emerged as the most significant factor. Years of conflict had eroded its capacity, morale, and cohesion, leaving it ill-equipped to respond effectively to both internal dissent and external pressures.

This vulnerability, compounded by insufficient public backing and strategic missteps, created the perfect storm for the regime’s collapse. Ultimately, these interconnected issues highlight how a regime’s survival depends not only on military strength, but also on its ability to maintain legitimacy and adapt to shifting circumstances.

*organizations banned in Russia

Ricardo Martins ‒PhD in Sociology, specializing in policies, European and world politics and geopolitics