The official statements of the US, in particular the American ambassador to Mogadishu Richard Riley, that Washington’s goal is “to find a peaceful diplomatic solution to the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia” are in fact merely empty words.
It is also noteworthy that, in an interview with Voice of America, Cameron Hudson, an analyst at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, has questioned the real “commitment and ability of the United States” to reduce the current tensions in this volatile region.
Moreover, far from merely tacitly observing the deterioration of the Somali-Ethiopian crisis, the US is secretly provoking Mogadishu and Cairo in order to further inflame it. In this connection, the assessment of the processes taking place in the region by the Robert Lansing Institute, a US think tank, cannot be ignored.
In Mogadishu’s August 17 rejection of further talks with Addis Ababa, its experts saw “strategic foresight and bold diplomacy” on the part of Somalia’s leadership: “by entering into a military alliance with Egypt, Somalia has demonstrated a keen understanding of its geopolitical leverage, turning its strategic location into a valuable asset.”
It continues: “Somalia, once seen as a failed state, is now emerging as a confident player, ready to engage on its terms, refuse any infringement and defend its sovereignty further.”
In its article entitled Ethiopia’s fears of losing regional influence, the Institute explicitly notes that “Egypt’s involvement in Somalia might embolden opposition groups or insurgents within Ethiopia” who are engaged in a rebellion against the current authorities.
Predictably, this provocative hint was taken up by Somalia. Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, in an interview with local television on September 12 this year, bluntly stated that if Addis Ababa does not abandon the implementation of its Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, the Somali government will consider supporting Ethiopian rebels against the Ethiopian government.
When asked by the correspondent whether Mogadishu intended to enter into talks with the TPLF for that purpose, the Minister said that it would depend on the development of the situation, but in principle that option could not be excluded.
And this comes after two rounds of Turkish-mediated talks, in which both sides admitted that they saw some progress and agreed to continue.
The very vocabulary of the article and its tone is nothing but a laudatory ode to Somalia’s “assertive diplomacy in challenging [Ethiopia’s] long-standing dominance” in the region.
In reality, behind this “assertive diplomacy” of Mogadishu lies Washington’s desire to destabilize the situation in Ethiopia and undermine the internal foundations of the current regime through the hands of its ally Cairo, which sees in Addis Ababa a political adversary which is unwilling to accept its conditions for solving the problem of allocating waters from the Blue Nile after the construction of Ethiopia’s hydroelectric dam.
Who pushed Cairo to dramatically escalate relations with Ethiopia?
In support of its proxies, the White House announced on September 6 of this year that it was extending for another year the sanctions it imposed against Ethiopia in 2021 over its human rights abuses in fighting the separatists of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. At a time of the current sharp deterioration in relations with Egypt and Somalia, the sanctions increase economic pressure on Addis Ababa by denying it the right to export its goods to the US market duty-free, which brought it $100 million annually.
However, as Britain’s Reuters press agency notes, despite the fact that Cairo has been accused of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and kidnapping, the White House from awarded Egypt $1.3 billion in military assistance on Sept. 10 this year. The State Department spokesman attributed this to “US national security interests,” recalling that Egypt is Washington’s closest ally in the Middle East and North Africa.
It is now clear who pushed Cairo, in a state of acute financial and economic crisis, into the recent sharp deterioration in relations with Ethiopia.
And all this is only because “the situation in northern Ethiopia,” as the White House press release notes, “poses an extraordinary threat to US national security and foreign policy.”
Indeed, there are Fano militias, supported by Eritrea and Egypt, active in the Amhara region against the government of Abiy Ahmed. They have refused to disarm under the terms of the Pretoria peace agreement, claiming that in the 2022 Pretoria peace talks the Ethiopian government refused to heed their demands for the return of some of the lands in Amhara Regional State which had previously been seized by the TPLF, when in power.
Practical steps taken by Washington and Cairo could also boomerang on Somalia
The problem is that Ethiopia’s strong ties with leaders of various regional organizations in Somalia’s Jubaland and Southwestern states increase the risk of an indirect conflict between the government in Mogadishu, which is determined to remove Ethiopian troops from the country, and pro-Ethiopian local administrations.
It should be borne in mind that apart from its contingent of about 4,000 peacekeeping forces, several thousand Ethiopian military personnel are stationed in areas of central and southern Somalia that border Ethiopia under a bilateral agreement between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu to prevent terrorists from invading Ethiopia’s contiguous territory, as happened in 2022. According to the US research center ACLED, there are 5,000 to 7,000 Ethiopian troops in Somalia’s Jubaland region and South-West State.
Under these circumstances, in the fight against Al-Shabaab terrorists the local administrations operate alongside the Ethiopian military and are subordinate to their clan elders rather than the federal authorities. Very often disagreements between them escalate into clashes with Somali army units.
Already, local community elders in parts of southwestern Somalia have begun to oppose government plans to expel Ethiopian troops. In response, the federal government has begun to take harsh measures against such politicians. Somalia’s parliament is currently trying to pass a law to revoke the immunity of 25 of deputies from South-West State who have expressed support for the continued Ethiopian military presence in Somalia.
In total, according to the latest data from the Somali news portal Horn Observer, the authorities of the autonomous communities in Jubaland, Puntland and South-West State oppose the deployment of Egyptian troops in Somalia, while the regions of Gedo, Bakool and Hiraan have publicly stated that they will not allow the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces, which are currently providing security for the local population.
Viktor Goncharov, African expert, PhD in Economics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”