The Russian-Ukrainian crisis is not calming down. The first refugees from Donbass began to arrive in Russia following an evacuation order made by the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk authorities ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian military action.

“According to the agreement with the Russian Federation, in order to prevent the suffering of civilians, I call on all those who do not have a mobilization schedule to move towards Russia as soon as possible,” said the President of the Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin. He also stated: “A full-scale offensive can simply begin at any moment“.(1)

According to Russian media, 80 buses with hundreds of refugees, mostly women and children, have already arrived in Rostov Region, which borders Ukraine.

Earlier on Friday, the authorities of the two breakaway regions announced that the Ukrainian Army was planning “a breakthrough” into the Donbass territory. The Ukrainian shelling of Donbas shows that this information was correct.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zaharova said that what was happening in Donbas was genocide by Kiev.

The very same pundits who claimed Russian President Vladimir Putin would attack Ukraine on February 16 now are quiet when Ukrainian army is attacking Donbass endangering the lives of innocent civilians.

However, given that shelling escalated along the entire front line in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, it is entirely possible that Russia will, sooner or later, one way or another, decide to intervene to protect innocent Russians in – the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic.

At this point, Ukrainian military officials claim Kiev does not plan to launch a military offensive in the region, but the very nature of the Donbas conflict indicates it can be resolved only by war.

Given that not a single point of the Minsk Agreement – signed in the Belarusian capital in 2015 – has not been implemented by the Ukrainian government to this day, the chances for a peaceful solution to the Donbas conflict are very slim.

In addition, on February 17 the Russian embassy in Kiev was seen with smoke billowing out of its chimneys, which raised concerns in Ukraine that Russian diplomats were burning documents.

The very fact that Russian diplomats still haven’t abandoned Kiev and other Ukrainian cities means that the Kremlin, at least at this point, does not intend to send the army in Ukraine. And that it is a priority for Moscow to resolve the dispute with Kiev in a peaceful way.

However, it must be emphasized that some Western countries have already closed their embassies in Kiev and moved to the Western Ukrainian city of Liviv. Accordingly, the question arises, do Western embassies know something that all of us do not know?

Looking at the situation from a military angle, Russia certainly does not need a war now. It would not make any sense to launch an invasion in January or February, as some western analysts speculated. Springtime and warm weather would represent incomparable better conditions for a military campaign. Not to mention that Russia has been advocating a peaceful and diplomatic solution for years, while Kiev has brazenly rejected a diplomatic solution.

Nevertheless, the government in Kiev does not seem to take into account the interests of its state but the interests of Washington. Economically speaking, Ukraine is already suffering heavy losses. Many international companies have reportedly left and potential foreign investors will unlikely dare to start their businesses in Ukraine while the shadow of war is present.

And it is Washington’s consultation with Kiev that is preventing the deal between Moscow and Kiev. Namely, the Americans give hope to the Ukrainians that they will help them to take Donbass by military means. In 2019, the Ukrainian ambassador to Croatia and Bosnia stated that the Ukrainian authorities should follow the so-called “Croatian scenario” for the solution of Donbas.(2) While in recent years, Croatian instructors visited the Ukrainian army.

In August 1995, the Croatian army began Operation Storm, which lasted several days and ended with the liquidation of the Republika Srpska Krajina. The operation expelled 250,000 Serb civilians and carried out a school example of ethnic cleansing.

However, to compare today’s Russia with the then Serbia under Milosevic is more than naive. If the Serbian army in 1995 calmly observed the ethnic cleansing of Serbs in Croatia, everyone should know that the Russian army will not do that today. The fact that Russia is in favor of a peaceful solution certainly does not mean that Russia will allow ethnic cleansing of the innocent Russian people in Donbass.

1)https://www.novosti.rs/planeta/svet/1087591/rat-ukrajini-najnovije-vesti-rat-evakuacija-rusija

2)https://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index.php?yyyy=2019&mm=07&dd=26&nav_category=78&nav_id=1570611