US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell admitted during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that “[India] will never be a formal ally or partner in the United States, but it doesn’t mean that we cannot have the strongest of possible relationships as allied nations on the global stage.” His words are authoritative since he’s known as the mastermind of his country’s Indo-Pacific strategy due to his prior related posts at the National Security Council and the State Department.
The reason why his admission is so important is that it follows the latest trouble in Indo-US ties brought about by the US’ hatred of India’s independent foreign policy, particularly towards Russia, which culminated in an assassination-meddling scandal that readers can learn more about here. Prior to that, ties were on a positive trajectory in mid-2023, with Foreign Affairs publishing an impressively insightful analysis on this and Modi’s visit to DC suggesting that the US finally abandoned its pressure campaign.
As it turns out, it was during his visit that the assassination-meddling scandal allegedly began, but the point is that everything was going excellently up until then. Afterwards, however, the US then started smearing India’s reputation in the media and even meddling in its latest elections. What appears to have changed the US’ calculations and convinced policymakers to consider returning back to their pragmatic approach towards India is their newfound convergence on Tibet and especially Ukraine.
Regarding the first, both India and the US have tacitly reopened the “Tibet Question”, which readers can learn more about in the preceding hyperlinked analyses. As for Ukraine, India is trying to supplant China as the leader of the incipient non-Western peace process on that country’s conflict through Modi’s reportedly upcoming visit there at the end of this month, which was explained more in detail here. These convergences on such significant issues made the US rethink the wisdom of its pressure campaign.
That’s not to say that it still won’t give India a hard time for its ties with Russia, but just that it’ll probably turn it down a few notches in order to facilitate cooperation on Tibet and especially Ukraine. The assassination-meddling scandal that toxified their ties will also likely receive less media attention except from some members of the liberal-globalist policymaking faction with ideological interests in it. Nevertheless, the trend is towards a return to pragmatism, which will be a welcome relief in India.
Unlike the US, Russia has always respected India’s hard-earned strategic autonomy and sovereign right to cultivate ties with whoever it wants, which is why Moscow won’t be perturbed by this development. The pro-BRI policymaking faction that wants to pivot towards China won’t be pleased, but their previous influence is now under control and largely neutralized as a result of Modi’s historic trip to Moscow, both of which are explained here.
Even so, some of them might try to revive speculation that India’s membership in the Quad supposedly means that it’s an unreliable partner for Russia, but that won’t influence their country’s policy towards it. At most, it’ll only lend false credence to the debunked claim pushed by some in the Alt-Media Community that India is the US’ “Trojan Horse”, but that won’t change anything in real life. All told, it would be for the greater geopolitical good if Indo-US ties improve, so hopefully that happens.