Numerous facts show that the Syrian Arab Republic is slowly but surely emerging from isolation and entering international life. Although there are still many obstacles on this difficult path, the legitimately elected Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is establishing ties with his neighbors and, above all, with Turkey, which now plays a key role on Syrian territory.
It may be recalled that after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the Turkish embassy in Damascus closed in March 2012. Despite this, the two countries maintained some contact even during the worst moments of the Western-imposed conflict. These contacts, mostly between intelligence agencies, were not diplomatic in nature, but they are important in terms of demonstrating that negotiations between the two countries continue, albeit at a lower level.
After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that he was open to meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, diplomats of the two countries started to establish contacts under the professional and diplomatic mediation of Russia. These talks quickly yielded results, and with the defense ministers of the two countries meeting in Moscow on December 28, 2022, the first high-level official contact between Ankara and Damascus in 11 years was established. Although negotiations were expected to continue, two events caused this process to slow down: Iran’s insistence on being involved in the talks and the February 6, 2023 earthquakes in Kahramanmaraş, which deeply affected both countries.
Initially, Iran did not participate in the Russia-sponsored talks on Turkey and Syria. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian’s insistence on being included in the talks through shuttle diplomacy in Ankara and Damascus was eventually accepted. As a result, negotiations between Ankara and Damascus, mediated by Russia, were transformed into the Astana format with the participation of four countries: Turkey, Syria, Russia and Iran. This process, in turn, led to a reduction in contacts between Turkey and Syria.
After Iran was included in the negotiations, there was an earthquake on February 6, 2023, which killed more than 50,000 people in the two countries. As a result, contacts between the two countries were suspended. However, as soon as the wounds caused by the earthquake began to heal, talks resumed on April 3-4 in Moscow. The meeting, attended by deputy foreign ministers, was devoted to organizing meetings between the foreign ministers of the four countries. In his opening speech, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asked the sides to make efforts toward comprehensive normalization, using such expressions as “we expect you to be as flexible and constructive as possible.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Ankara on April 7, 2023 where he met with his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and President Erdoğan. The talks touched on several topics, including the US-NATO war in Ukraine, the grain crisis, the Karabakh crisis and, most importantly, the Syrian crisis in the context of Ankara-Damascus talks. It is worth noting that Lavrov’s visit to Ankara followed the talks in Moscow, and his bilateral meetings with Turkish officials certainly helped speed up the slow and difficult process of negotiations.
Despite the slow progress of the talks between Ankara and Damascus, the talks are expected to continue and eventually succeed. In fact, it is not a sustainable situation for the two countries, which share a 911-kilometer-long border, to continue to live with the problems accumulated during the civil war unleashed in Syria by the US-led West and several monarchical regimes in the Persian Gulf region. Politicians who are aware of this situation are determined to bring these problematic issues to the table and achieve positive results.
Another important issue discussed was Syrian refugees in Turkey. Turkey is currently hosting 3.6 million registered refugees and expects Damascus to take the necessary legal and practical measures to ensure that refugees can return safely and voluntarily to their home country. In addition, the situation of extremist armed groups in the region is also among the topics under discussion. While Damascus expects the suppression of armed opposition elements that fought against it, Ankara, for its part, expects the disbandment of the Kurdish People’s Self-Defense Units (YPG), which it perceives as a threat along its border.
Obviously, it is impossible to offer immediate solutions to all these issues. Nevertheless, it is likely that the parties will take certain and positive steps towards the normalization process, initially focusing on the general points. Both sides, and this should be noted especially, give priority to the issue of Syria’s unity and territorial integrity. No one is talking, as has been the case in the past, especially in the Western media, about dismembering Syria and creating different enclaves on its territory.
Moreover, a renewal of the Adana Agreement, signed in 1998, would enable a united effort against any perceived threat along the Turkish-Syrian border. At the same time, Turkey could contribute to Syria’s reintegration into the international system and help rebuild the country. Although the main goal of negotiations between the two countries is to normalize their relations by finding solutions in problematic areas, it is possible to start by establishing communication on common areas in order to promote dialogue. Indeed, both sides, as the first steps in the negotiations have shown, attach great importance to the issue of normalization.
In order to ensure sustained progress in the talks, it is likely that the sides, as suggested by Russia, will adopt a strategy of dividing the issues and dealing with them independently and step by step. Since many problems have accumulated over the years, it may not be possible to resolve them all immediately. Hence, prioritizing issues that can be resolved over time can be very effective in developing mutual understanding and maintaining open channels of dialogue. Turkish-Russian relations serve as an example of this approach to resolving any issues and problems with the goodwill of the parties.
Moreover, the normalization of relations between the two countries could have broader geopolitical implications. The conflict in Syria, in which many states have had a hand, among which the United States should be singled out, has been a major source of tension in the region, with various regional and global powers taking sides in the conflict. Normalization could help reduce tensions and increase cooperation between countries in the region, which could ultimately lead to greater stability.
Finally, it is important to note that normalization will not be a simple process, given the complex and longstanding problems between the two countries. It will require mutual trust, compromise, and the ability to constructively address each other’s concerns. Nevertheless, with determination and commitment, continued negotiations between the two countries can lead to a positive outcome that benefits both sides and the region as a whole.
The position of many countries in the Arab world, whose top officials met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in mid-April to discuss Syria’s return to the Arab fold, also contributes to this. On that occasion, Qatari Foreign Minister Majid Al-Ansari pointed out that the position of Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad has significantly strengthened as Damascus’ more than a decade-long isolation begins to weaken. The meeting was attended by the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Iraq, Jordan and Egypt.
It may be recalled that Syria was expelled from the Arab League when a civil war broke out in the country in 2011 because the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, supported the rebels against President Bashar al-Assad. The government in Damascus then began to receive support from Saudi Arabia’s regional rival, Iran. The Arab League is expected to hold a summit in Riyadh in May, with the return of Syria likely on the agenda. There is no confirmation as to whether Bashar al-Assad will attend, but his presence would mark the most significant step toward normalizing the entire situation in this turbulent region.
The devastating February 6 earthquake, which affected parts of Turkey and Syria, prompted countries in the Arab world to lend a helping hand to an already war-torn country. In the aftermath of the tragedy, Saudi Arabia said there was a consensus among Arab states to end Syria’s isolation and return to dialogue to resolve outstanding humanitarian problems.
In the GCC, Oman has been one of the few countries that have maintained normal relations without severing diplomatic ties with Syria over the past decade. Assad also visited the UAE twice last month, signaling closer ties between Damascus and the Gulf states. Qatar has previously stated that it has no intention of normalizing relations with Assad and has dissuaded other countries from doing so. Majid Al-Ansari said that Doha’s position has not changed, but that it is in line with the emerging general Arab consensus.
The positive changes taking place in the Middle East region clearly show that more and more countries not only support Russia’s and personally President Vladimir Putin’s idea of a multipolar world, but are taking firm and effective steps in this direction.
Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online journal “New Eastern Outlook.”