The election is also all the more significant given that it is the first major victory for Germany’s far right at such a high level since 1933.
The state elections in Thuringia were no surprise to what had been reported here over a month ago. The electorate did not heed the traditional parties’ repeated call to boycott the AfD and the far-right won unequivocally, with 32.8%. Despite being a small state of two million inhabitants, the results are very significant, as they have shaken the system of party coalitions in the Federal Republic in an unprecedented way, one year before the parliamentary elections.
Another warning sign for Berlin’s political class was the entry of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – also populist and soberanist, but more to the left – with 15.8%. A result that benefited from the resounding fall of Die Linke, the party that has governed the state for the last 10 years with the support of the SPD and the Greens, with particular enforcement over citizens during times of the pandemic. With the liberals of the FDP, the SPD and the Greens have consummated the announced “traffic light” disaster in this election. Together, the three parties in the federal government coalition barely made up a measly 10% of the vote overall.
Far right, the best result since 1933
The election is also all the more significant given that it is the first major victory for Germany’s far right at such a high level since 1933, precisely in the East region, which British historian James Hawes, in “The Shortest History of Germany”, considers to be the true cradle of National Socialism.
The formation of a new government is now open, with nationalist leader Björn Höcke, constantly demonized by the system’s press as a “radical” and “dangerous anti-Semite”, in a position of advantage to negotiate a coalition or form a minority government, which will predictably be weak due to the “Brandmauer” (fire wall) imposed by the system’s parties.
We’ll see what consequences this has for German politics as a whole. The Overton window has opened on the right, and the split in the CDU is already large at national level. The Christian Democrats are now in a dilemma that could open up internal rifts. One side is hanging on to the AfD’s discourse, on the subject of immigration for example, and is calling for dialogue with a party that is as conservative and right-wing as the CDU, while the other side is uncritically anchored to the legacy of Angela Merkel and her open-door policies.
AfD and BSW, the embodiment of the ‘Querfront’
The spectre of an alliance between the AfD and the BSW, which would have to count on the participation of one of the minority formations, certainly with the 1.3% of the regionalists of the Freie Wähler (Free Voters) and the 0.6% of the right-wingers of the Werte Union (Union of Values) to be able to make a majority government, is even more frightening for the regime. It would be the embodiment of the ‘Querfront’ (cross-front) and would mark a turning point in German politics since 1945.
Another option being talked about would be a CDU-BSW coalition, but it would be stillborn. The CDU’s national leader, Friedrich Merz, already referred to Sahra Wagenknecht’s party a few months ago as a “very dangerous mix of far-left and far-right” and rejected any alliances. But since it also categorically ruled out a coalition with the AfD, it is now at a dead end, since the votes of the SPD, Greens and liberals are insignificant.
Regardless of the government that is formed in Erfurt, one fact is indisputable: a significant majority of over 60% of the electorate in Thuringia voted for the protest parties (AfD, BSW, Die Linke, Freie Wähler, Werte Union). It’s very symptomatic.
An Austro-Hungarian new sinergy all across the Danube
In neighboring Saxony (population 4 million), which also went to the polls last weekend, the CDU maintained its dominant position at almost the same level (31.9%). The Christian Democrats have governed the state since the reunification of Germany, sometimes alone, sometimes in coalition, as in the last four years (with the Greens and SPD), also with a particularly tough hand during the Covid-19 crisis. Here, the AfD also rose significantly (from 27.5% to 30.6%), coming close to the CDU, while newcomer BSW managed 11.8%. All the other parties were punished by the country’s current economic situation, with which they are associated.
Thus, not only in Thuringia, but also in Saxony, the population decided to vote mostly for parties outside the Brussels consensus. This is no coincidence. The public’s perception of falling living standards, deindustrialization, social insecurity and a lack of future prospects has largely decided the country’s recent elections. Berlin’s involvement in the conflict in Ukraine has been a key factor in this trend.
It’s too early to talk about separatism, but the clear ideological divide between East and West, which is visible in the election results, could also open up a geographical gap between what used to be the GDR and the rest of the country. East Germans’ sensitivity to issues such as the relationship with Russia, their aversion to Brussels technocracy, NATO, immigration, multiculturalism and the neoliberal model, also brings Thuringia and Saxony geopolitically closer to Hungary, Serbia and Slovakia, which are currently more aligned with the emerging multipolar world. Similar major political movements are also taking place in Bavaria, Austria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovenia and Northern Italy. One can speak of a renewed synergy between the territories that formed the Austro-Hungarian Empire just over 100 years ago, something that can’t be just a coincidence and that doesn’t only have to do with the current situation in Ukraine.
Ricardo Nuno Costa ‒ geopolitical expert, writer, columnist, and editor-in-chief of geopol.pt