Our syndicate had done a paper in 2014 with the title ‘Tectonic shift along the Dnieper River’, which had projected some scenarios arising out of the situation in Ukraine at the time; some of the projections of the article have proven to be quite close to the current scenario. Taking help from the article, it is intended to highlight movers and shakers of the current crisis and if there is a way out of the impasse.
The current crisis in Ukraine started with the overthrow of an elected President (Mr Yanukovych), by mobs supported by the European Union and the US in 2014. By actively stepping into Ukraine, the West had trodden on President Putin’s toes and still wanted him to keep smiling; Putin could imagine the specter of an orchestrated Russian spring knocking at his door and the docking of US Navy into the harbors of Sevastopol; that may have been too much to smile about!
The Ukrainian leadership brought to the fore by the courtesy of US Ambassador in Ukraine Mr Pyatt and the likes of Victoria Nuland had miserably failed to provide leadership and a unified stance, they could not match the timings of President Putin. The display of paralysis of command by the Ukrainian leadership on the issue of the defense of Crimea is a case in point where poor decision making and lack of comprehension had left Ukraine to lose Crimea.
Later, two protocols with the name of the Minsk Protocols were signed, first in 2014 and the second in 2015. As per CCTV America, the Minsk Protocol was an agreement which sought to end war in the Donbas region of Ukraine. It was written in 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, consisting of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), with mediation by the leaders of France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format.
After extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, the agreement was signed by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group and, without recognition of any status, by the then heads of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.
Before commenting on the recent developments, there is a need to have a look at the view from states and factions involved in the conflict:
Russian View: President Putin has recently penned an OpEd on the Ukrainian question which highlights the importance of historical and cultural linkages of Ukraine and Russia, each and every word of this article must be read by those who want to understand the Russian point of view. In an interview aired on CNN, President Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, cited documented Western promises, which, he noted, have never been “fixed in a legally binding way,” that NATO would not expand further eastwards into the former Soviet bloc. In contrast to these pledges, over the past few years, NATO has used its ‘open door policy’ to absorb several former Warsaw Pact countries. Moscow has drawn the line at Ukraine, Peskov told the American broadcaster. Peskov also highlighted that Russia very strongly feels NATO’s “gradual invasion” into Ukraine has brought the US-led bloc right up to Moscow’s “red line,” and the situation poses an imminent threat to European security.
Off late, after US-Russia diplomatic meet between Sergei Lavrov and Antony Blinken, set of proposal to de-escalate the situation were exchanged between both powers. Unfortunately, the Neoliberal cabal in DC prevailed and Russian genuine demands were trashed by the US by outright rejection. This has created a very dangerous scenario for peace in Eastern Europe; do the neoliberal Cabal in US and Brittania want another World War? This is a million dollars question.
Western View: While playing the color revolutions in the former Soviet Republics and exploiting the grey zone, the Western bloc led by the US and NATO has gradually expanded eastward and wants to step on the toes of President Putin, this has been displayed in Georgia and Ukraine. With slogans of democracy and freedom, the West has been able to attract most of Eastern Europe into its fold; from Poland and Hungary to Bulgaria and from Baltic states to Albania, NATO has been viciously squeezing the Russian sphere of influence.
Recent attempt to usher in chaos in Kazakhstan was a flopped attempt by the Neoliberals with a hope that Russian borders in the South could be imploded to pin down and engage Russia, fortunately President Putin took a prompt decision and helped Kazakh leadership in quickly stabilizing the southern front without prolonging the conflict.
The western view on Ukraine and the larger Eastern Europe is derived from the Neo Liberal doctrine, it discards the cultural and historic linkage of civilizations and states and tries to impose the western neoliberal order on order of the nations with a view to economically enslave them.
In the classic Post Truth environment and through media blitz of the so called free western media, it bulldozes the narrative of dominance of western ideology and tries to shove the garbage of so-called free world down the throat of other nations. Unfortunate, western neoliberal narrative is gradually losing its luster as nations and states and their people are becoming aware of its pitfalls and traps.
Incidentally, Germany has stood apart from the onslaught of NATO and has so far refused to become part of NATO’s, read US, hegemonic brinkmanship. Germany and even France have tried to bridge the gap between Europe and Russia and have opted for connectivity with the East through a shared space in the economic pie. European dependence on Russian gas and the strategic project of Nord Stream 2 is a testament to integration of Europe and the larger Eurasia, for the Neoliberal cabal, this may lead to interdependence of Eastern and Western Europe and thus scuttle heir dream of keeping the Cold war architecture of hostility alive.
President Biden’s recent press talk on the subject has created more confusion; as reported by NBC News, President Biden’s prediction that Russia will invade Ukraine and his suggestion that the West’s response could be more muted for a “minor” incursion drew swift criticism from Washington to Kyiv, with some accusing him of giving Russia the green light to attack. This appears to be a ploy to suck Russia into a major conflict with Ukraine and Eastern European states.
The fact of the matter is that NATO is now trapped into a Zugzwang option, it cannot help Ukraine militarily, at least directly, and it has very limited and poor options in the diplomatic domain. However, it has brought Ukraine to the verge of a war with Russia because of hollow promises and empty slogans. Ukrainians were made to believe that their joining the European Union would usher in an era of peace and prosperity, what they got was a fractured state and devastated economy, with major countries like UK opting for Brexit, the dream of a grand Europe from Atlantic to Dnieper River has been badly shattered.
Without taking sides and labelling who is on the right side of history at present, it may be prudent to analyze possible effects of the conflict on the future of Eurasia and the rest of the world. Strategically Russia may need to put her foot down and get formal and written assurances in the form of a treaty that NATO will not cross the current Red Line. If diplomacy fails, Russia could opt for a limited military option as well, so far President Putin has allowed the diplomacy as the main tool of preserving Russian interests.
If NATO enters into Ukraine to help its so-called ally, the conflict could widen to engulf most of Eastern Europe and send shockwaves across the globe. The US and Europe will also expect the rest of the world to take a position, ‘with us or against us’, which could further split the world into two warring blocs—the Eurasian bloc led by Russia, China and likeminded states in Asia and CIS vs the Indo Pacific alliance of the West. The recent start of maritime exercises by the Russian Navy and the announcement of a joint maritime exercise involving China, Russia and Iran in the Northern Indian Ocean points to this new development.
The global economy, already battered by the Covid pandemic, may not be able to sustain the exogenous shock of a war in Eastern Europe. The disruption of supply chains due to Covid has already ushered in high inflation across the world, the war in Eastern Europe could further weaken the global economic system and crash the markets, pushing up the levels of inflation.
Taking a cue from our syndicate article mentioned above, the stakes for the West are very high; if President Putin emerges strong as a new leader in Europe and the Ukrainian leadership accommodates Russian sensitivities by realigning it with the Customs Union and gets integrated into the new Eurasian System in line with Russian Federation, the European Union may start fragmenting due to loss of confidence in the western leadership. This could lead to a rise of fascism in the Western Europe, the tensions between the Neo Nazis and immigrants spilling over and civil war may erupt in Europe.
The US is isolated and the economic woes of Washington could cause a collapse of the dollar and the rise of Russia and China to lead the world into a more stable World order. The west is left with Zugzwang options only.