It represents a so-called “middle ground” between the scenarios of extreme escalation and extreme de-escalation that are nowadays being discussed.
The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that Ukraine’s latest cross-border terrorist raid against Belgorod Region, the alleged footage of which was actually filmed inside Ukraine despite being passed off by some of its fighters as Russia, was a complete failure. President Putin had already assessed earlier that this was driven by purely political motives related to influencing this weekend’s elections, boosting Kiev’s morale, and improving their negotiation prospects during any forthcoming peace talks.
Just like Ukraine’s first cross-border terrorist raid last May was “copium” after losing Artyomovsk, this latest one is delayed “copium” after losing Avdeevka. Each was aimed at advancing similar political goals, albeit the first didn’t have any direct connection to the elections but can be seen in hindsight as lending credence to the late Prigozhin’s failed coup attempt one month later. In that sense, its intended political importance was even greater than this latest one, but both obviously ended up failing.
Another interesting point about last week’s unsuccessful cross-border terrorist raid is that it represents a so-called “middle ground” between extreme escalation and extreme de-escalation. The first refers to a conventional NATO intervention in Ukraine’s support, which could likely include Poland’s participation if it happens, while the second concerns Pope Francis’ appeal to Zelensky to resume peace talks pronto. Neither are acceptable for Kiev at this point in time at least and that’s why it sought a “middle ground”.
The problem is that this approach isn’t just unsuccessful, but it’s also unsustainable since it has nothing to do with reshaping the military-strategic dynamics that continue trending against Ukraine. If Russia achieves a breakthrough across the Line of Contact, then Kiev will be compelled to resort to either of the aforementioned extreme scenarios, be it escalation through a conventional NATO intervention or de-escalation through the resumption of peace talks pronto (and on Moscow’s terms).
It would therefore be better for Kiev to proverbially cut to the chase in implementing either of those options right away in order to bring the conflict to its inevitable end game, but this isn’t being done since its leadership is still holding out hope of indefinitely delaying that for self-serving political reasons. Zelensky and his ilk fear that these scenarios could discredit them in different ways whereas maintaining the seemingly untenable state of affairs as long as possible can preserve their power for the time being.
Resorting to either option would mean that their side lost, thus paving the way for Zaluzhny or whoever else to replace Zelensky whenever martial law is lifted and the next national elections are held, provided that they’re free and fair of course (which can’t be taken for granted). Since the incumbent isn’t yet comfortable with his political fate, he wants to hold off on setting those events into motion as long as he can, ergo why he ordered these suicidal cross-border terrorist raids for purely political reasons.
Read More Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter
