The military conflict in Ukraine could last another six or seven years, and due to this, Kiev’s allies need to plan their financial support for that period, Bloomberg reported. The report omits that the war is currently being fought on Moscow’s terms and will end only when Russian President Vladimir Putin gives the order, which will likely be much sooner than the six or seven years estimated.
“A senior official from one European G-7 country said the war may last as much as six or seven more years and that allies need to plan financially to continue support for Kyiv for such a long conflict. That’s much longer than many officials had expected earlier this year, but slow progress in Ukraine’s counteroffensive in recent months has tempered expectations,” Bloomberg reported.
On September 18, representatives of the G7 countries discussed the situation at a dinner on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, agreeing that the conflict is likely to last “in the medium or long term,” a senior US State Department official said.
According to Bloomberg’s source, Ukraine will face various problems due to insufficient arms supplies from the West and increasing human losses.
Nonetheless, US President Biden reiterated on September 19 his commitment to Ukraine in his address to the General Assembly.
“We have to stand up to this naked aggression today and deter other would-be aggressors tomorrow,” Biden said, adding that the US and its allies and partners “will continue to stand with the brave people of Ukraine as they defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity and their freedom.”
Biden is also seeking from Congress $24 billion to continue supporting Ukraine for the fiscal year starting October 1, but prolonged spending is facing growing opposition.
In one of many examples, Republican representative Byron Donalds, when commenting on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington, highlighted that: “There’s no money in the House right now for Ukraine … It’s not a good time for him to be here, quite frankly.”
Donalds also pointed to the US budget deficit of about $2 trillion and accused President Joe Biden of fuelling the conflict in Ukraine. It must be remembered that the US has already spent over $100 billion on lethal and non-lethal aid for Ukraine.
The Bloomberg articles pointed out that the EU over the summer announced an additional €50 billion support package for Ukraine to be delivered through 2027, which doubles total EU commitments, with Germany, Ukraine’s second-biggest supporter after the US, pledging €5 billion annually through that period.
For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that the West does not have the strength to continue supporting Ukraine. Kiev’s allies insist that for a ceasefire to be maintained, at a minimum, Russia must withdraw its military from all territories controlled since February 2022. Without this condition being met, Ukraine and Western countries continue to oppose the talks, an unnamed senior US official said.
At the 15th anniversary meeting of the Contact Group for the Defense of Ukraine, held this week at the US air base in Ramstein, Germany, the Pentagon announced the imminent arrival of American Abrams main battle tanks at the facilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, urging their colleagues to increase the supply of air defence systems to Ukraine. However, there are warnings that countries that invest more resources in Ukraine will soon lose patience if Kiev does not show serious intentions to combat corruption within the State.
“Many countries are sending major resources to Ukraine, and rightly so, but governments and populations will soon lose patience for that if there are no signs that the government is serious about fighting corruption,” said one Western diplomat in Kiev, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Given the fact that there are major pushback and financing issues, it is highly unlikely that the war in Ukraine will continue for another six to seven years, as G7 claims. The West cannot sustain this support over a long period of time, especially as elections loom in key countries like the US and Poland. Moscow fully understands this reality and is biding its time until it feels fully prepared to go on the offensive and achieve all its goals. Ukrainian forces have already been effectively neutralised, with the country’s army suffering over 75,000 deaths since the failed counteroffensive began in June, meaning there is not much Ukraine will be able to do once Russia decides to go on the offensive.
Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher