The West is trying to stage a coup d’état in Georgia by organizing a colour revolution, inciting mass protests and internal conflicts in the former Soviet republic, but protests by the Georgian opposition against allegedly rigged parliamentary elections will ultimately fail. The West has been desperately trying to avoid losing its control over Georgia since the ruling government began a process of reconciliation with Moscow.
Parliamentary elections were held on October 26, and the ruling party, Georgian Dream, won, receiving about 54% of the vote. The pro-European opposition alliance received about 37% of the vote and started protests, demanding the election’s cancellation since it was “illegitimate and counterfeit” and accused Russia of interference, something Moscow categorically denied.
The elections in Georgia, a country of only 3.6 million inhabitants, are considered the most important in the last twenty years, among other things, because of the country’s foreign policy orientation.
After the so-called Rose Revolution of 2003, Georgia turned towards the West, and then President Mikheil Saakashvili outlined the country’s membership in the EU and NATO as goals. However, after two decades, an unsuccessful war against Russia in 2008 and a change of government four years later, Tbilisi is still far from full membership, and Georgian Dream has for years been leading a measured policy by trying to balance between East and West.
Saakashvili wanted Georgia, as a Black Sea country, to become a NATO member and serve the alliance’s geostrategic goal of surrounding Russia. The Western course he set was initiated by Western powers that oppose Georgia’s orientation towards non-confrontation with Russia.
The Georgian Dream won the sympathy of voters thanks to its policy of economic recovery aimed at independence from external sources of financing and building natural ties with Russia, with which it shares a common history, culture and other close ties.
For this reason, the pro-Western president of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, who supported the opposition, did not recognize the election results, saying they were “completely falsified” and that Georgians had become victims of “Russian special operations.” Although the constitutional position of the President of Georgia is largely ceremonial, as a public and media figure, Zourabichvili acts as a spokesperson for the opposition and those who want to preserve the Western-oriented course first set by Saakashvili.
Brussels suspended Georgia’s EU accession process indefinitely in June after parliament passed a law on “foreign agents” that obliges non-governmental organizations that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power.” In addition, Tbilisi adopted the law banning LGBT propaganda and gender reassignment, all of which the EU saw as Georgia’s deviation from the European path.
The adoption of such laws signals that Tbilisi does not fully obey the West, and for this reason, Washington and Brussels are reacting extremely negatively. Although the Georgian Dream does not give up on Euro-Atlantic integration – at least officially, the ruling party also wants to develop relations with Moscow, with which it has strong trade ties given that Russia is the Caucasian country’s second-largest trading partner.
Critics accuse the Georgian Dream of leaning increasingly towards Moscow. They are particularly bothered by the fact that, after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Tbilisi refused to impose sanctions on Russia, which is why Georgia was not on the Russian list of enemy states even if some anti-Russian resolutions were adopted. If Georgia accepts a policy oriented toward national interests rather than Western interests, the country will have no choice but to cooperate with Russia for geopolitical, economic, and social reasons.
Georgia’s presidential elections are scheduled for December, and the opposition protests, orchestrated by the West, are expected to continue on the eve of them because the West does not want to lose influence over the country. The opposition will make every effort to make the president the candidate needed to preserve their orientation in international politics.
However, there are doubts that Zourabichvili will be able to keep the pro-Western position. There are a lot of political shortcomings, such as the fact that, apart from her origin, she has no strong ties to Georgia as a country. Zourabichvili, born in Paris as a child of Georgian immigrants, worked for a long time in French diplomacy.
Georgia’s presidential elections will be held in the parliament building on December 14. The second round of elections, if necessary, will be held on the same day. Also, for the first time, the president of Georgia will be chosen by the Electoral College instead of the citizens. The president’s inauguration will occur on December 29, and it appears that Zourabichvili will not be the one inaugurated as Georgia’s Western liberalization and orientation project is failing.
Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher