Ukrainian and Western officials have expressed skepticism about the potential impact of F-16 fighter jets on the battlefield situation, whilst American media have admitted that Russia’s constant attacks on air bases and a shortage of qualified pilots are causing problems for Ukraine.
The long-awaited F-16 fighter jets are expected to arrive in Ukraine within weeks, but Ukrainian and Western officials warn that the aircraft, which Kiev once called a “game changer,” is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the battlefield due to limited supplies and a significant number of Russian air defenses, the Washington Post reported.
According to the newspaper, the first F-16s are expected to be used primarily to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses and are unlikely to fly too close to the front line.
Officials also declined to specify the number of F-16s Ukraine will receive later this year, but there will be only one squadron, about 20 fighter jets.
“There are simply too few of the planes and too many Russian air defenses that can shoot them down. That means the first F-16s will likely serve to boost Ukraine’s air defenses — to shoot down aerial targets such as missiles, drones and aircraft — rather than strike Russia’s invading ground forces and other military assets near the front,” the outlet reported.
It is recalled that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously said that his country needs more than 100 F-16s to combat the Russian air force and stressed that the number of jets Ukraine is receiving is “insufficient.”
He said earlier this month, “The decision on the F-16 is strategic. The number is not yet strategic.”
Regardless of the paltry number of F-16s sent to the Eastern European country, the New York Times highlighted that F-16 fighter jets will face major problems in Ukraine due to Russia’s constant attacks on air bases and a shortage of qualified pilots.
“The strikes on Ukrainian airfields show Russia’s determination to limit the impact of the planes before they even enter combat. They also highlight the challenges Ukraine faces in preparing to use the sophisticated aircraft for the first time,” the article says.
In addition, as noted by the newspaper, Ukraine is facing an acute shortage of qualified pilots and trained technicians to maintain these aircraft.
The New York Times quotes military analyst Hunter Stoll of the RAND Corporation as saying, “Russia has had so much time to fortify its defences, especially along the front-line areas. The F-16s and their pilots will face stiff resistance from Russian air defences, both on the ground and in the sky.”
Adding to his assessment, the outlet highlighted that although “Ukraine is hoping the F-16s, which come with powerful electronic warfare systems and an array of other weapons, can be used in coordination with other Western weapons like Patriot air-defence systems to expand the area considered too dangerous for Russian pilots to fly,” the main issue they are facing is the “shortage of trained pilots and a limited number of jets” which “will constrain the immediate impact.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on July 10, before the NATO summit kicked off, that “The F-16 will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer.” However, as revealed by the Washington Post and the New York Times, this will not make any meaningful contribution to Ukraine’s war effort, meaning that donor countries have just wasted equipment and money as Russia will turn these fighter jets into scrap metal.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the US and its NATO partners create risks of a direct armed confrontation with Russia. According to him, the fact that Kiev has F-16 fighters capable of carrying nuclear weapons will be considered by Russia as a Western threat in the nuclear sphere.
Nonetheless, despite the nuclear threat that the F-16 can pose, as the New York Times acknowledged, protecting the F-16s on the ground will be challenging given that Ukraine’s airfields are all within Russian missile range. Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander in chief, also admitted that “it’s not possible” for Kiev to build covered concrete hangars to fully protect aircraft during wartime. In effect, Russia will quickly neutralize the F-16 threat on base or as soon as it enters the skies.
Although the F-16 was long lauded as a weapon that would turn the tide of the war back in Kiev’s favor, it overlooked the obvious problem of a lack of pilots, technicians, and secure hangars to store the fighter jets. Rather, the entire operation has just been a huge waste of expense for no gains, just further humiliation that exposed the West’s and Ukraine’s deficiencies in confronting the Russian military.
Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher