There are four outcomes to beware in this game for players, and for kibitzers also.
The first is the Observer Effect. This is when the observer gets so close to the target, the target itself is rattled, loses visibility, acts unpredictably. Second is the Confusion Effect when the observer can’t tell the difference between the confusion observed externally, and the confusion occurring internally, between objective chaos and subjective incomprehension. Third is the Echo Chamber Effect which occurs when subordinates repeat what their leader says and dare say no more in case the leader changes his mind and they lose favour.
Finally, there is the Monica Lewinsky Effect. This is a particularity of the Oval Office of the US President. It happens to his subordinates and officials of allied governments when, no matter how much they doubt what the President is saying from above his desk, they must go under his desk to ingratiate his ego and swallow their doubt without gagging.
Listen to the hour-long discussion with Nima Alkhorshid and Ray McGovern analyzing the results of the Jeddah meeting between US and Ukrainian officials, and forecasting what the Russian response will be. Click to view here.
“I just can’t echo enough,” National Security Advisor Michael Waltz told the press in Jeddah, “President Trump is a president of peace.” In point of fact, Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned Trump by name or as the president every 15.7 seconds through the 9 minutes 58 seconds of their press conference, following the conclusion of negotiations with the head of the Ukrainian presidential office in Kiev, Andrei Yermak, and Foreign Minister Andrei Sybiha.
View the Rubio-Waltz briefing here. Count the echoes in the transcript released by the State Department.
The text of the Joint Statement, drafted in advance by Yermak and accepted by Rubio and Waltz, can be read here.
Yermak’s draft included this paragraph: “The delegations also discussed the importance of humanitarian relief efforts as part of the peace process, particularly during the above-mentioned ceasefire, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.” This last reference to children is false in fact; it has been a propaganda line against Russia since 2022. Inclusion in the Joint Statement is a signal of the US endorsement of the Ukrainian side in the end-of-war negotiations proposed.
According to newspaper reporting in London, Yermak was advised during the drafting of the Joint Statement by Jonathan Powell (right), the National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Powell, according to the Financial Times, “ has been in Kyiv advising Zelenskyy’s team on how to handle the discussions.” Following the end of the Jeddah talks and release of the Joint Statement, Starmer claimed personal credit for the “concerted European effort, led by Sir Keir Starmer, to get the US and Ukraine back in good favour with one another. Sir Keir praised the ‘remarkable breakthrough’ and called it an ‘important moment for peace in Ukraine’…Over the weekend Powell travelled to Kyiv to meet Zelensky and help draft a written proposal which included a temporary pause in fighting, then confidence-building measures such as an exchange of prisoners-of-war, the return of Ukrainian children taken by Russia and the release of civilians.That proposal was agreed by the Ukrainians and the Americans, setting the stage for what happened in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.”
Starmer also congratulated Trump. “I warmly welcome the agreement today in Jeddah and congratulate President Trump and President Zelenskyy for this remarkable breakthrough.” This was Starmer’s Monica Lewinsky Effect.
That the US stock market is deeply sceptical of the public display by the US, Ukrainian and allied officials, and resistant to ingratiating Trump with money, here is the chart discussed in the podcast of the share price declines for Trump-related stocks. Overall, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) index is up 33% since December. The counterpart S&P index is down 8.4%.
SIX-MONTH SHARE PRICE TRAJECTORY OF TESLA, PALANTIR, TRUMP MEDIA & TECHNOLOGY
KEY: grey=Tesla; green=Palantir; yellow=Trump Media & Technology Group. Source: https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/charts?s=TSLA:NSQ
The US stock market has also been sceptical that the Trump Administration will generate increased defence spending, either at home in the Pentagon budget or in exports to the NATO allies promising to rearm and spend more on procuring US weapons. The chart shows that after speculative drift upward immediately after the Inauguration, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman have fallen in share price. The only consistent upward movement is by RTX (formerly Raytheon), which produces fighter aircraft, anti-aircraft defence systems, ground and sea combat weapons.
SHARE PRICE TRAJECTORY OF THE MAIN US ARMSMAKERS SINCE
JANUARY 1, 2025
KEY: grey=Lockheed Martin; green=Northrop Grumman; yellow=RTX Corporation (Raytheon). Source: https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/charts?s=LMT:NYQ
