The New York Times (NYT) published a piece last week about “Why This Presidential Front-Runner Is Stirring Fears of the ‘Death of Democracy’”, which fearmongers about the consequences of Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s victory during next month’s elections on 14 February. The gist is that his involvement in Suharto’s dictatorship and alleged but never-proven human rights abuses could deal a deathblow to democracy in the world’s fourth most populous country if he becomes president.
All polling over the past few months indicates that the election will likely go to a run-off in June between him and Anies Baswedan, who’s an American-educated liberal–globalist that pledged to implement a “values-based” foreign policy, which would predictably lead to problems with China. The next vote therefore represents a clear choice between two polar opposite foreign policy platforms since Anies wants to align Indonesia with America while Prabowo wants to continue its Sino-US balancing act.
It was already warned in late November that “Indonesia Might Pivot To The West After Its Upcoming Elections In February”, the preceding hyperlinked analysis of which should be read in full by the reader to bring themselves up to speed if they’re not already familiar with this insight. The point put forth in that piece remains relevant and was extended credence by the NYT’s latest article fearmongering about Prabowo, namely that his victory would prevent Indonesia from falling further under US influence.
That’s not to suggest that he’s anti-American, but just that he’ll continue President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s pragmatic foreign policy of multi–aligning between the US-led West’s Golden Billion, the Sino–Russo Entente, and the Global South following India’s example under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Such an outcome would retain a semblance of stability along the Southeast Asian front of the New Cold War, while Anies’ victory would greatly reshape military-strategic dynamics in the US’ favor.
The only chance that he has of coming to power after polling at just 25.47% compared to Prabowo’s 45.79% is to retain his narrow 2.5% lead over former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, ergo the need for the NYT to ramp up its fearmongering campaign ahead of the 14 February elections. In that event, the West can then maximally amplify related narratives against the frontrunner in the one-third of a year till June’s run-off in an attempt to scare Indonesians into voting for his pro-American rival instead.
By falsely framing the possible Prabowo-Anies run-off as a choice between dictatorship and democracy instead of multipolarity and unipolarity, the West hopes that their preferred candidate will gain enough support over the coming months to at least eke out a victory, if not a commanding mandate. With this motive in mind, the NYT’s latest article on the upcoming election can be seen as an indirect form of meddling aimed at denigrating Prabowo enough that he might not be able to win outright next month.
In other words, it’s an information warfare provocation intended to manipulate voters’ perceptions of the frontrunner to the point that a run-off election is scheduled this summer, which could then give Anies the chance that he needs to come to power and align Indonesia with America against China. Observers should keep a close eye on this country since the US is expected to do its utmost to help their preferred candidate stage an artificially manufactured comeback against the presidential frontrunner.