The Republican convention in Milwaukee was a masterclass. After a divisive primary, the GOP showed unbridled unity. Its basic message — “Trump gave us more wealth and security” — is compelling.
And Republicans wisely shifted tone, focusing largely on policy differences rather than ad-hominem attacks. The GOP didn’t call Democrats Marxists; it argued that the left’s progressive economic and social policies have failed.
Meanwhile, after effectively quashing a presidential primary and any meaningful dissent about its candidate, the Democrats are saddled with an enfeebled unpopular leader whom voters don’t want.
They have also returned to their rhetorical narcotic: argument by epithet. But “Trump is an existential threat to democracy” is increasingly falling on deaf ears.
With the Democrats headed for the electoral abyss in November, the US is set for a political and cultural realignment that could have generational implications. Nearly every poll shows the Sun Belt swings — North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — out of reach for the Dems, making President Biden’s only path to 270 electoral voters a very narrow, improbable sweep of the Rust Best swing states. But he consistently trails in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The normally reliable blue states of Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota are also in play.
At the heart of the Democrats’ problem — besides their candidate, of course — is a religious belief in a “Demography is destiny” theory. First undertaken in the second Obama administration in 2012, this theory holds that Democrats can cobble together a multicultural coalition of the working class and the young, as well as voters of color, through a constant appeal to identity politics and welfare state patronage.
But it’s more of a transactional appeal than an ideological one.
The Biden presidency has put the theory to the test and the results don’t seem too promising. Democratic elites smugly brag about Biden’s legislative achievements on COVID stimulus, infrastructure and green energy — all of which involved massive deficit spending, welfare expansion and industrial planning.
But voters couldn’t care less about legislative accomplishments. They see this record deficit spending creating 20% inflation, which robbed them of any real income gains during the Biden years. They see job growth made up primarily of government and health care jobs. They see EV mandates as sending working-class jobs to the Chinese and hurting the economy while accomplishing little on climate change.
Democrats love to brag about helping the working class, but working-class voters now favor former President Donald Trump by a whopping 17 points, according to recent polls.
In 2012, President Barack Obama won the Hispanic vote by 71% to 27%. Left-leaning politicians and activists thought they could cement this advantage through identity appeals on lax immigration enforcement. Some progressive Democrats even suggested abolishing ICE. But younger Hispanics didn’t bite.
Like mounting numbers of black voters, young Hispanics seem increasingly drawn to the economic populism message of Trump rather than the identity pandering. Trump is now tied with Biden for the Hispanic vote in the combined Wall Street Journal average of polls.
In 2020, Biden won 92% of the black vote. Now, after non-stop appeals through DEI initiatives that often elevate widely unpopular equity quotas for favored groups over fixing performance gaps, Biden’s black support stands at 68%, according to the WSJ average.
In 2016, 51% of young men identified with the Democratic Party; the figure today is 39%. For the first time in decades, more young men identify with the GOP today than the Democrats. Some 84% of young voters think Biden is too old to be effective, according to a recent New York Times/Siena poll. Trump scores 24 points better on the same question.
Republicans now show signs of moving to the center — jettisoning references to abortion and “traditional marriage” from its planks and platform. Democrats show no signs of any course correction. In 2013, 70% of Americans said the Republican Party was out of touch, according to ABC/Washington Post polls. Tellingly, 62% of Americans now think it’s the Democrats who are out of touch.
There are signs of other bigger cultural shifts underway. The day after the Trump assassination attempt, the bosses at MSNBC held its show “Morning Joe” from the air, apparently believing the hosts and guests were more interested in activism than hard news.
The cover-up of Biden’s mental capacity by party leaders and the implosion of the left’s “Demography is destiny” theology may not just lead to a landslide victory for Trump in the fall — it may also signal a political and cultural shift of generational consequence. If so, Democrats and the left will have no one to blame but themselves.
Julian Epstein is the former Democratic chief counsel to the House Judiciary Committee.