The joint operation of the United States and Israel against Iran has clearly not gone according to plan.
Despite the elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a number of other high-ranking officials of the country, political chaos did not occur, and forces that could organize the population for mass actions to replace the current regime with one loyal to the United States and Israel did not show significant activity.
The U.S. missile strike on a school in the city of Minab, which resulted in the deaths of 180 people, the overwhelming majority of whom were children, contributed to the unification of the population around the idea of retribution, a holy war of jihad.
The military power and ideological preparedness of Iran’s army and its elite component – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – were underestimated. Instead of the expected rapid capitulation, the country’s defense has been organized, and strikes are being carried out against U.S. military facilities in Middle Eastern countries. According to data as of mid-March, 119 UAVs with a total value exceeding 500 million US dollars and two fighter aircraft have been shot down. The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, which has led to a sharp increase in global oil prices.
However, such an offensive will lead to significant casualties in manpower. Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives are scheduled for November 3, 2026. In an election year, with the already existing decline in the rating of U.S. President D. Trump and the Republican Party (44 percent), public protests, and a low level of public approval of the war with Iran (52 percent against), the deaths of a noticeable number of servicemen will lead to a negative voting result for the current U.S. administration. The leadership of Israel also does not want political risks due to losses.
Therefore, an option is being worked out to involve so-called proxy allies in military actions, in particular Azerbaijan. In addition, influence is being exerted on the leadership of Azerbaijan in order to induce it to enter the war with Iran. Through the intelligence services of the United States and Israel, allegedly reliable intelligence data on hostile actions and plans of Iran are being conveyed to the State Security Service (SSS) of Azerbaijan and the country’s leadership.
Thus, it is claimed that the UAV attack on the international airport in Nakhchivan and the attempt to strike a nearby school were organized by Iran. Information has been conveyed to the SSS stating plans of the IRGC to carry out sabotage on the Baku–Ceyhan oil pipeline, attack the Israeli embassy in Baku, the “Ashkenazi” synagogue, and eliminate one of the leaders of the Mountain Jewish community.
The reaction of the President of Azerbaijan I. G. Aliyev was to bring the armed forces to maximum combat readiness, advance troops to the border with Iran, and withdraw embassy personnel from Tehran.
At the same time, political and economic levers of influence are being used. In February 2026, during the visit to Baku of U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance, a Charter on Strategic Partnership was signed, with the main topic being military-technical cooperation. Within its framework, patrol boats for the protection of Caspian territorial waters have already been supplied. Weapons are also being purchased from Israel; total trade turnover increased by 50 percent in 2024–2025, and a year ago the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan was licensed for gas exploration in Israel’s territorial waters and acquired a share in the Tamal field. The leadership of Azerbaijan has claims against Iran regarding its position on the Karabakh issue – de facto support for Armenia and cooperation with it in military and economic matters.
In Azerbaijani society, including within the political elite, there have historically been forces that consider it possible, under certain military-political circumstances, to annex the so-called South Azerbaijan – the part of Iran adjacent to the border, where up to 25 million ethnic Azerbaijanis live.
The above factors may stimulate the leadership of Azerbaijan to enter the war on the side of the United States and Israel with its ground forces. These actions will lead to losses among servicemen and the civilian population of Azerbaijan.
The insufficient effectiveness of air defense will allow the IRGC, in the shortest possible time, to destroy with missile and UAV strikes the foundation of Azerbaijan’s economy – facilities for the extraction, processing, and transportation of oil.
The absence of serious separatist sentiments among Azerbaijanis in Iran, and the negative attitude of citizens of Iran and Azerbaijan, including military personnel, toward the very idea of fighting co-religionists (both are Shiite Muslims), may create unpredictable developments. In any case, the possible participation of Azerbaijan in a military adventure against Iran will cause serious damage not only to this country but will also further intensify the destabilization of the Middle East and the South Caucasus, which directly borders Russia.
Alexander Vyatsky is an author based in Russia focussing on civic engagement and community activism.
