Why the world’s future may hinge on India’s tariffs and Russia’s new Dnepr river frontier.
India in the Tariff Crossfire
Washington’s recent tariffs on India—punitive duties of 50% on key exports such as textiles and gems, are a dastardly punishment for New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil. Yet, the unintended consequences are glaring. India is no minor client state, nor is it easily coerced. Its economic lifeline runs through Russian energy, and its defense partnership with Moscow stretches back to the Cold War. Although think tanks and deep state actors may not consider it, every strike from Washington reinforces India’s need to hedge against U.S. pressure, and in practice, drives it closer to Russia. Therefore, what was meant to leverage or coerce becomes repulsion.
We must also take note that these tariffs don’t just punish India; they punish Americans. Economists warn that they will function as a hidden tax on U.S. households, raising consumer prices by nearly 2% overall—approximately $2,100 per year for the average family. From seafood to textiles and jewelry, the cost of everyday goods will climb, meaning Washington’s attempt to strong-arm New Delhi lands just as hard on American wallets.
BRICS Between Vision and Fracture
BRICS is advancing and faltering in equal measure. On the one hand, 90% of intra-bloc trade is now conducted in local currencies, a bold challenge to the hegemony of the dollar. On the other hand, the July summit in Rio revealed cracks beneath the surface. The absence of Putin and Xi underscored strain on unity, and the influx of new members with conflicting agendas further muddied the bloc’s message. BRICS today is not yet the hardened alternative to Western finance, but it is something almost as important: a living experiment in post-Western sovereignty, where nations build scaffolding for financial independence outside Washington’s reach.
However, despite its internal contradictions, BRICS is steadily positioning itself as a cornerstone of the multipolar world. By conducting the majority of trade in local currencies and expanding membership across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the bloc is laying the groundwork for new financial levers—common settlement systems, alternative credit institutions, even the potential for an energy or commodities pricing mechanism outside the dollar. If these tools mature, BRICS could evolve from a symbolic counterweight into a genuine economic pole capable of reshaping global trade rules.
Ukraine: Peace or the Dneper
Hovering above these shifts is the war in Ukraine, now grinding through its fourth year. The fantasies of Kiev retaking Crimea or Washington collapsing Russia’s economy have evaporated. What remains is a narrowing horizon of outcomes: either peace through negotiation, or a Russian frontier on the Dnepr River.
If Moscow had intended to conquer the whole of Ukraine, it could have mobilized overwhelming force in 2022 and crushed the nation’s infrastructure and military. The restraint shown belies the Western caricature of Vladimir Putin as a bloodthirsty villain. Yet restraint has not spared lives: more than two million casualties mark the conflict, ensuring bitter resentments for generations. In that sense, the Western elites have already scored a tactical victory—by turning two closely bound Slavic peoples into estranged adversaries. For those who pull the strings of NATO, that outcome alone was mission accomplished.
For Moscow, the calculus is clear: time works in its favor. For Washington, time erodes its influence. And for the rest of the world, the lesson is stark. The multipolar reality is here, and Ukraine is the main battlefield that reveals it.
Phil Butler is a policy investigator and analyst, a political scientist and expert on Eastern Europe, and an author of the recent bestseller “Putin’s Praetorians” and other books
