The Iran war has exposed deep fractures within NATO. European reluctance to support the conflict highlights an increasingly isolated America and questions the alliance’s collective purpose. Meanwhile, Israel’s role and the shifting global balance toward emerging Eastern powers further weaken cohesion. NATO’s future appears uncertain and increasingly fragile.
Introduction
Trump Factor
“When alliances are tested more by doubt than unity, even the strongest institutions may fall.”
Although Trump is not the only US President to compel allies to take a greater share of their defense, it’s also a fact that no other President has ever publicly scolded the alliance members. They all agreed that NATO was essential to the national security of the United States, as well as to the stability of the world, especially Europe. His disrespectful behavior and not maintaining the diplomatic decorum have, this time, created a very unpleasant situation — a shock that the alliance has never experienced throughout its history.
One of the major factors behind the deterioration of the transatlantic partnership is President Trump’s anti-globalization policy. The Western-led liberal order, whereby the entire international community would strive as a global village, is now under grave threat. President Trump has explicitly stated that it was a big mistake by the previous US administrations to create liberal norms at the cost of American interests. Recently, he exited America from various UN-related bodies, declaring that they no longer serve American purposes. However, Europe’s entire political and strategic makeup is based upon liberal norms. The end of liberal order means the end of NATO.
Likewise, the Trump administration has always prioritized bilateralism over multilateral foreign policy. Instead of relying on wide networks of coalitions, or alliances, Trump prefers bilateral deals. It simply means if European counterparts have something profitable to give, the US, in return, would provide assistance. In its National Security Strategy (2025), the Trump administration introduced the ‘Enlist and Expand’ strategy, which entails that like-minded conservative partners would come up to counter rivals. As of now, most of the NATO members are either associated with left-wing or simply not aligned with Trump’s policies. This has resulted in the US declaring Europe an effacing civilization.
The change in the international system — a transition towards multipolarity — has become a nightmare for the US. The rise of multiple power centers, in particular the peaceful rise of China, has raised alarms in Washington. An established power never tolerates a rising power. The anxiety of losing its past position of eminence and global hegemony has compelled the US to behave like a bull in a china shop. Whether it’s Venezuela, Cuba, Europe, or Iran, the major factor behind this madness is the changing world order. The international community is no longer interested in bowing down to the US demands. States are drawing close to China as it provides a suitable alternative governance model where every state has the right to coexist with the others.
Isolated Superpower
The US-Israel war of aggression against Iran has further degraded NATO’s relevance. The so-called most important geopolitical relationship in the world appears to be heading for a breakup. For failing to participate in the American-Israeli conflict against Iran, President Trump has expressed disgust with European allies. European leaders, for their part, have strongly opposed a war that they were not consulted about and that they believe to be unlawful and unwise.
Europeans are in no frame of mind to help out after a year in which Trump levied tariffs on European goods, cut off the majority of US assistance to Ukraine, made fun of European leaders, and threatened to annex Greenland. In response, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “It’s not a very good arrangement if NATO is only about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but they’re denying us basing rights when we need them. It’s difficult to remain involved in that. We will need to rethink the value of NATO and that alliance for our nation.”
Role of Israel
“It seems like the foreign policy of the US is directed in Tel Aviv, not in Washington.”
It is pretty clear that the US is fighting Israel’s war in Iran. It is Israel that feels threatened. Now, one can ask, what does NATO have to do with Israel? The answer lies in the recent statement of former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett, “Turkey is the new Iran.” After Iran, Israel’s biggest enemy in the region is Turkey. Its ever-increasing partnership with the nuclear-armed Pakistan and growing defense industrial production are a threat to Israel. Israel believes that Turkey is reviving its neo-Ottoman aims in the region. The reason why Israel is reluctant to pose a direct threat to Turkey is its membership in NATO.
But what if NATO collapses? It would be an ample opportunity for Israel to target Turkey. Therefore, in the Iran war, Israel is escalating the situation, compelling the US to take the help of its allies, knowing the fact that they will not enter the war and will face repercussions in the form of alliance breakdown. Moreover, in recent years, Israel has been facing criticism from most of the European countries due to growing public discontent towards Israeli aggression in Gaza. To ward off any emerging future threat from Europe, the dissolution of NATO is necessary for Israel.
Eastern Power Surge
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” (Sun Tzu)
For Russia and China, the collapse of NATO and the end of Western supremacy is a win-win situation, whereby the enemy is defeated by its own mistakes and mishandlings. Since Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela, the international arena has been echoing with Russo-China dormancy. However, neither China nor Russia has closed their eyes to what’s happening in the world. If Russians or Chinese had intervened in the Venezuelan case, it might be possible that NATO would have been strengthened more and a mess would have been created.
But what’s going on now? The US is caught in a prolonged war that has become too costly to win. All major defense resources from the Asia-Pacific are being diverted to the Middle East. NATO countries are no longer providing assistance against Iran. Numerous European nations, notably Spain, as well as France, the U.K., and Italy, have placed restrictions on the U.S.’s use of their airspace and air bases in the conflict. Trump’s requests for European allies to dispatch naval troops to aid in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing conflict have likewise been turned down. The collapse of NATO is to Russia’s advantage, whereas the US engagement in attrition warfare is to China’s strategic advantage.
Conclusion
The war in Iran has put the entire transatlantic unity at stake. Having had bloody experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, the NATO members are no longer ready to intervene in a war in which they weren’t consulted. No doubt, the alliance has faced ups and downs throughout the course of history, but this time neither the geopolitical environment nor their tolerance is going hand in hand. The dissolution of the alliance seems inevitable. Or, in case it remains intact, NATO may disintegrate de facto. It’s comparable to a divorce. Some acts are irreversible once they have been done.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
